Reliability Evaluation of Two-Phase Degradation Process with a Fuzzy Change-Point  

作　　者：LIU Kai DANG Wei ZOU Tianji LÜCongmin LI Peng ZHANG Haitao 刘凯;党炜;邹田骥;吕从民;李鹏;张海涛(Technology and Engineering Center for Space Utilization,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100094,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]Technology and Engineering Center for Space Utilization,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100094,China [2]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China

出　　处：《Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong university(Science)》2022年第6期867-872,共6页上海交通大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61703391)。

摘　　要：For some products,degradation mechanisms change during testing,and therefore,their degradation patterns vary at different points in time;these points are called change-points.Owing to the limitation of measurement costs,time intervals for degradation measurements are usually very long,and thus,the value of change-points cannot be determined.Conventionally,a certain degradation measurement is selected as the change-point in a two-phase degradation process.According to the tendency of the two-phase degradation process,the change-point is probably located in the interval between two neighboring degradation measurements,and it is a fuzzy variable.The imprecision of the change-point may lead to the incorrect product’s reliability evaluation results.In this paper,based on the fuzzy theory,a two-phase degradation model with a fuzzy change-point and a statistical analysis method are proposed.First,a two-phase Wiener degradation model is developed according to the membership function of the change-point.Second,the reliability evaluation is carried out using maximum likelihood estimation and a fuzzy simulation approach.Finally,the proposed methodology is verified via a case study.The results of the study show that the proposed methodology can achieve more believable reliability evaluation results compared with those of the conventional approach.

关 键 词：two-phase degradation Wiener process fuzzy change-point membership function reliability evaluation statistical analysis 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]