西方对俄能源制裁特点、影响及启示  

Characteristics,influence and enlightenment of Western energy sanctions against Russia

作　　者：陈文林 吕蕴谋 赵宏图[1] CHEN Wenlin;LV Yunmou;ZHAO Hongtu(China's Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2022年第9期1-10,共10页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：乌克兰危机爆发以来,美欧对俄罗斯发起了一系列能源制裁,范围逐渐扩大,程度不断升级。与过去相比,此轮能源制裁范围更广、规模更大,但俄罗斯的反制力度也更大,而且制裁时机相对不利,美欧之间特别是欧盟内部分歧较大,步调不一。总体上,对俄能源制裁的声势大于实际行动。目前,乌克兰危机尚未结束,西方出于政治安全等考虑依然在制裁声势上保持强势。但由于制裁效果远低于预期,特别是自身能源困局不断加重,欧盟对俄能源制裁在实际执行过程中开始出现软化和放缓迹象,石油制裁面临“大撤退”,天然气制裁或胎死腹中。虽然近期内欧洲能源多元化步伐无疑会显著提速,但正如历史上大多数能源制裁一样,此轮对俄能源制裁最终也难逃失败的命运。从长期看,欧盟摆脱对俄能源依赖恐将遥遥无期,俄欧间最终达成某种程度的妥协和变通不可避免。Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis,the Western energy sanction against Russia has experienced a process of gradually range extending and degree upgrading.Comparing with the past,this round energy sanction has wider scope and bigger scale but encounters much more counter-reaction from Russia.What’s more,internal disagreement,especially in EU,as well as improper timing,are divided and out of step.In general,this round energy sanction shows that the momentum is greater than the reality.Now the Ukraine crisis is not over yet,the West has to keep a strong momentum of energy sanction for political and security purpose.However,as the effect of the sanctions was far lower than expected,especially the worsening of its own energy difficulties,the EU began to soften and slow down the energy sanctions against Russia in the actual implementation process.The oil sanction shows“big retreat”,and the natural gas sanction is doomed to failure from the start.Though EU’s energy diversification will strengthen in the near term,but this round energy sanction probably repeat the failure of most of the past energy sanctions against Russia.In the long run,EU’s goal of getting rid of energy dependence on Russia is nowhere in sight,and some kind of compromise and flexibility between EU and Russia seems to be inevitable.

关 键 词：乌克兰危机 西方 能源制裁 欧洲能源危机 天然气 

分 类 号：F416.2[经济管理—产业经济]