过度生产与企业业绩:基于高管离职情景的研究  

Overproduction and Corporate Performance:Research Based on Executive Turnover Scenario

作　　者：李四海 王晓微 黄逸鸣 LI Sihai;WANG Xiaowei;HUANG Yiming(School of Accounting,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan,430073)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学会计学院

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2022年第4期66-80,共15页China Economic Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72072183);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(20YJC630063);云南省高等学校科技创新团队项目。

摘　　要：在供给侧结构性改革背景下,本文以A股制造业上市公司为样本从微观的成本属性角度,基于企业固定成本的差异性考察企业过度生产行为及其经济后果。研究发现,当前中国市场环境下,制造业上市公司的过度生产存在业绩反转现象,当期过度生产会提高当期业绩,损害未来业绩。正是由于业绩存在跨期效应,作为生产决策主体的企业高管基于私人利益最大化利用过度生产提高离任当期业绩。进一步对影响路径的剖析表明,过度生产会提高下期存货跌价准备,从侧面印证过度生产对未来业绩负面影响的经济后果,研究同时发现资本市场分析师对于企业过度生产行为具有一定的甄别能力。Under the background of supply-side structural reform, this paper, taking a-share listed manufacturing companies as samples, investigates the overproduction behaviors and its economic consequences based on the differences in fixed costs of enterprises from the perspective of microscopic cost attribute. It is found that under the current market environment of China, the overproduction of listed companies in the manufacturing industry has the phenomenon of performance reversal. That is, it will improve the current performance and damage the future performance. It is precisely because of the inter-temporal effects of performance that enterprise executives, as the main body of production decision-making, take advantage of overproduction to improve their outgoing performance based on the maximization of private income. Further analysis of the impact path shows that overproduction will increase the provision for inventory devaluation in the next period, which verifies the economic consequences of overproduction on future performance.

关 键 词：供给侧结构性改革 过度生产 跨期效应 盈余预测 预期任期 

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