疫情背景下数字贸易体制对国际贸易稳定作用的比较——基于30个“一带一路”沿线国家的fsQCA分析  

Comparison of the Role of the Digital Trade System in International Trade Stability in the COVID-19 Pandemic: An FsQCA Study Based on 30 Belt and Road Countries

作　　者：张正荣[1] 魏吉 顾国达[3] Zhang Zhengrong;Wei Ji;Gu Guoda(Zhejiang Sci-Tech University,Hangzhou;Zhejiang Financial College,Hangzhou;Zhejiang University,Hangzhou)

机构地区：[1]浙江理工大学经济管理学院 [2]浙江金融职业学院 [3]浙江大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济社会体制比较》2022年第5期156-166,共11页Comparative Economic & Social Systems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“国际经济危机中的外贸稳定策略研究——以汇率协调的视角”(项目编号:09CGJ013);浙江文化研究工程项目“开放经济的浙江样本”(项目编号:17WH10006Z)。

摘　　要：建构数字贸易体制是数字经济时代培育国际贸易新模式的基石。新冠肺炎疫情对全球外贸稳定形成了重大冲击,加大了国际合作共建数字贸易体制的紧迫性。文章基于对影响数字贸易体制因素的综合分析,研究“一带一路”沿线国家如何通过数字贸易体制建构来稳定新冠肺炎疫情期间的对外贸易。通过对30个“一带一路”沿线国家的模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)发现:数字贸易体制共建是疫情冲击下稳定外贸发展的重要保障;数字贸易体制越完善的国家,越能在疫情冲击下保持外贸稳定。数字贸易体制的构成在“一带一路”沿线的不同国家和区域存在异质性:东南亚国家建构了涵盖数字贸易关系、环境、基础、潜力与风险管控机制的完善体系,是其在疫情冲击下维持外贸稳定的保障;非洲国家的外贸稳定倚重良好的数字贸易环境;数字贸易的低风险因素在中东欧国家发挥了关键作用。这一研究不仅丰富了国内关于数字经济体制构建的理论探索,也为疫情冲击下稳定我国对外贸易提供了对策思路。The construction of the digital trade system is the cornerstone to cultivate a new mode of foreign trade. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on the stability of global foreign trade, which has increased the urgency of building a digital trading system internationally. Based on the deconstruction of digital trade system factors, this paper studies how the Belt and Road countries can stabilize foreign trades during the COVID-19 epidemic through the construction of the digital trade system. By fsQCA study, this paper finds that: the joint establishment of the digital trade system is an important guarantee to stabilize the foreign trade of China and countries along the Belt and Road in the epidemic. Countries with better digital trading systems will be more able to maintain stable foreign trade during the pandemic. There is heterogeneity in the composition of the digital trade system among different countries and regions along the Belt and Road: Southeast Asian countries have built a complete system covering digital trade relations, environment, foundation, potential and risk management mechanisms, which is the guarantee for maintaining the stability of foreign trade under the impact of the epidemic;the stability of African countries’ foreign trade depends on a good digital trade environment;the low-risk factors of digital trade play a key role in CEE countries. The research has both theoretical significance and practical value, which not only enrich the theoretical exploration on the construction of digital economy system in China, but also provide countermeasures for stabilizing China’s foreign trade under the impact of the epidemic.

关 键 词：数字贸易 “一带一路” 国际贸易稳定 fsQCA 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系] F733[政治法律—政治学] C912.3[政治法律—外交学]