On the role of anthropogenic warming and wetting in the July 2021 Henan record-shattering rainfall  

人为气候暖湿化对“21·7”河南极端强降水的影响

作　　者：Jun Wang Yang Chen Ji Nie Zhongwei Yan Panmao Zhai Jinming Feng 王君;陈阳;聂绩;严中伟;翟盘茂;冯锦明(Key Laboratory of Regional Climate and Environment for Temperate East Asia,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,School of Physics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Regional Climate and Environment for Temperate East Asia,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [2]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China [3]Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,School of Physics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China [4]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China

出　　处：《Science Bulletin》2022年第20期2055-2059,M0003,共6页科学通报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1507700);the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20020201);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42025503)。

摘　　要：Unprecedentedly heavy rains hit China's Henan Province during 19-21 July 2021,triggering fatal and costly floods punctuated by over 120 bllion Yuan of economic losses and nearly 400 fatalities.A broad swath of the province witnessed nearly a whole year's worth of rainfall pouring within the three days.The provincial cap-ital city Zhengzhou even registered 201.9 mm in an hour which smashed the records both locally and nationally.Such concen-trated,intense bursts of precipitation instantly overwhelmed the urban drainage system and sent torrents through streets and sub-way tunnels.Though rapid analyses sorted out favorable dynamic and thermodynamic setups,including exceptionally strong updrafts shaped by large-scale circulation anomalies,unique topography,and anomalously abundant water vapor advected jointly by the Northwestern Pacific subtropical high and double typhoons-In-Fa and Cempaka[1],the linkage between climate change and this record-shattering event also gained broad atten-tions yet remains elusive.2021年7月,河南省遭遇了历史罕见极端强降水(简称“21·7”河南极端降水),造成了重大人员伤亡和财产损失.有关气候变化对此次极端事件存在何种影响的问题,吸引了各方的高度关注.然而,由于“21·7”河南极端降水的局地性极强、强度极端异常、动力成因极为复杂,对其定量归因超出了传统归因方法的能力和适用范畴.本研究在条件归因的新框架下,利用高分辨率区域气候模式(水平分辨率4 km),开展了一系列大样本集合模拟试验,通过约束与事件相伴随的大尺度环流演变,定量归因了人类活动导致的气候暖湿化对“21·7”河南极端降水强度的影响.研究发现,相比工业化革命前的气候状态,当前人类活动导致的气候暖湿化使得“21·7”河南极端降水的强度增加了约7.5%(5%~95%不确定性范围:3.8%~11%).而局地城市化对“21·7”河南极端降水的影响很小,不确定性较大.如果类似的大尺度环流发生在21世纪末更暖的气候状态下,届时类似于“21·7”河南极端降水事件的强度将在现有基础上继续增加14.3%~21.9%(取决于未来的经济社会发展路径,此处考虑SS1-2.6和SSP2-4.5两种假设情景).研究发现,未来极端降水强度的增加与人为气候暖湿化的幅度之间呈现非线性比例关系,这意味着需要升级和完善基础设施,以便更好地应对未来更强的暴雨和洪涝灾害.

关 键 词：气候状态 极端降水 区域气候模式 暖湿化 气候变化 极端事件 洪涝灾害 局地性 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]