The continuing shrinkage of snow cover in High Mountain Asia over the last four decades  

过去四十年高亚洲地区积雪持续缩减

作　　者：Yupeng Li Fan Sun Yaning Chen Baofu Li Gonghuan Fang Weili Duan Qianqian Xia 李玉朋;孙帆;陈亚宁;李宝富;方功焕;段伟利;夏倩倩(State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 10049,China;Akesu National Station of Observation and Research for Oasis Agro-ecosystem,Akesu 843017,China;School of Geography and Tourism,Qufu Normal University,Rizhao 276826,China;College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China;College of Biology and Geography,Yili Normal University,Yining 835000,China)

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China [2]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 10049,China [3]Akesu National Station of Observation and Research for Oasis Agro-ecosystem,Akesu 843017,China [4]School of Geography and Tourism,Qufu Normal University,Rizhao 276826,China [5]College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China [6]College of Biology and Geography,Yili Normal University,Yining 835000,China

出　　处：《Science Bulletin》2022年第20期2064-2068,M0003,M0004,共7页科学通报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42101054 and 42171126);the Project of Tianshan Innovation Team in Xinjiang(2021D14015);the Xinjiang Talent Program;the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences。

摘　　要：High Mountain Asia (HMA), known as Earth's "Third Pole" and"Asia's water tower",. is the largest glacier and snow reservoir onEarth except for the polar ice sheets (Text S1 and Fig. S1 online)。Snow is an important component of the HMA cryosphere, and itsvariability directly affects the water and energy balances in theregion [1,2] The average warming rate in the HMA region in recentdecades is approximately twofold higher than the average warm-ing rate in China and the world in the same period. The climatologyand trends of snow cover in the HMA have been investigated basedon station and satellite observations. However, these methodshave some limitations, resulting in large uncertainties or limita-tions in assessing long-term snow cover changes in the HMA.Snowpack changes in the HMA region analyzed over a short timeseries may also lead to conclusions that are inconsistent with con-ventional assertions. Several studies of the temporal and spatialvariability of snow cover in the HMA region using short-termModerate Resolution lmaging Spectroradiometer data revealed nosignificant shrinkage in the snow cover area (SCA) [3].积雪是高亚洲冰冻圈的一个重要组成部分,该地区长期积雪变化仍然知之甚少.基于随机森林和数据融合方法,本研究研制了1982~2019年分辨率为5 km的无云每日雪盖产品(名为HMASCE).对积雪指标长期变化的分析表明,高亚洲地区的积雪覆盖面积(SCA)呈现出明显的缩减趋势(±0.56%/a).这一时期的雪盖天数(SCD)缩短了15.5 d,雪盖开始日期(SOD)推迟了5.6 d,雪盖结束日期(SED)提前了10 d. SCA(SCD)明显减少的地区主要在青藏高原东南部,而SCA(SCD)在西天山等周边地区因独特的季节性周期而呈现轻微上升趋势.敏感性分析的结果显示,雪盖物候(SCP)对温升的敏感性更强,温度对SOD和SED的贡献分别达到77.6%和69.8%.此外,还观察到SCP的海拔依赖性, SCD缩短在5000 m左右达到最大值,这一现象与区域自身特点与升温的海拔依赖性等因素有关.

关 键 词：随机森林 青藏高原东南部 结束日期 敏感性分析 SCP 雪盖 SCD 

分 类 号：P426.635[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]