辖区内财政支出差异对经济增长的影响:“极化效应”还是“扩散效应”——基于中国230个地级市的面板数据门槛效应模型分析  

The Impact of Internal Regional Fiscal Expenditure Disparities on Economic Growth:‘Polarization Effect’or‘Diffusion Effect’?An Threshold Effect Model Analysis Based on Panel Data for 230 Prefecture-level Cities in China

作　　者：吴俊培[1] 陈曾 刘文璋 Wu Junpei;Chen Zeng;Liu Wenzhang

机构地区：[1]武汉大学财政金融研究中心 [2]中国人民大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2022年第10期20-36,共17页Macroeconomics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“完善财政转移支付制度研究”(项目编号:17BJY173);中国人民大学“统筹推进世界一流大学和一流学科建设”专项经费(2018)的资助。

摘　　要：“增长极”理论认为经济增长并非均衡地发生于每一个地方。地区间财政支出差异对经济增长存在“极化效应”和“扩散效应”两种影响。本文首先基于中国县级统计数据,采用变异系数和泰尔指数测算了地级市辖区内各县市区之间的财政支出差异程度。然后利用地级市面板数据,运用门槛效应模型分析财政支出差异对经济增长的影响。研究发现,财政支出差异对经济增长有显著的负向影响,且这种影响表现为非线性特征,存在一个合理的财政支出差异区间。对财政支出差异影响经济增长的内在机制分析发现,地级市辖区内的财政支出差异通过地方财政支出的效率价值偏好,扩大了财政支出差异对经济增长的“极化效应”。建议引导地区财政支出增强公平价值偏好,缩小地区财政支出差异,使之保持在合理区间,进而建立均衡性财政支出体制,实现区域协调和可持续发展。The‘growth pole’theory suggests that economic growth does not occur uniformly in every location.There are two types of effects on economic growth:‘polarization effect’and‘diffusion effect’.This paper first measures the degree of fiscal expenditure disparities among counties at the prefectural level using the coefficient of variation and the Theil index based on county-level statistics in China.Then,using the panel data of prefecture-level cities,we analyze the impact of fiscal expenditure disparities on economic growth using the threshold effect model.It is found that fiscal expenditure variance has a significant negative effect on economic growth,and this effect exhibits a nonlinear characteristic,and there exists a reasonable interval of fiscal expenditure variance.The analysis of the intrinsic mechanism of fiscal expenditure disparity on economic growth reveals that the fiscal expenditure disparity within prefecture-level municipalities amplifies the‘polarization effect’of fiscal expenditure disparity on economic growth through the efficiency value preference of local fiscal expenditure.It is suggested to guide regional fiscal expenditures to enhance fair value preferences,reduce regional fiscal expenditure disparities and keep them in a reasonable range,to establish a balanced fiscal expenditure system and achieve regional coordination and sustainable development.

关 键 词：财政支出差异 经济增长 极化效应 扩散效应 门槛效应模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F812.45