构建新发展格局的科学内涵及理论逻辑——基于非竞争型投入产出法的分析  

The Scientific Connotation and Theoretical Logic of Building the New Development Paradigm: A Non-competitive Input-output Analysis

作　　者：林卫斌[1] 吴嘉仪 施发启[2] Lin Weibin;Wu Jiayi;Shi Faqi

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与资源管理研究院 [2]国家统计局国民经济核算司

出　　处：《统计研究》2022年第10期19-33,共15页Statistical Research

摘　　要：本文运用非竞争型投入产出法对进口品在经济循环中的价值流向进行细分,以准确衡量内外需对经济增长的贡献以及国内生产体系对国际供应链的依赖程度,并在此基础上从需求和供给两个视角理解新发展格局。本文研究表明:第一,出口对国内生产总值的带动份额从2010年的20.8%下降到2018年的14.8%,对经济增长的贡献率从2010年的10.4%下降到2018年的4.2%,外需对经济增长的拉动作用趋于减弱,我国经济已经在向以国内大循环为主体转变;第二,国民经济40个产业部门中有36个部门外需对增加值的带动份额趋于下降,但是通信设备、计算机和其他电子设备制造业、纺织业等17个部门外需对增加值带动份额仍在20%以上,新发展格局下国际市场仍然具有重要作用;第三,通信设备、计算机和其他电子设备制造业、仪器仪表制造业等关键部门的生产对外依存度较高,是构建新发展格局中提升自主创新能力、保障国家经济安全和提升经济竞争力的重点领域。本研究为理解新发展格局提供了定量分析基础,有助于更加准确地把握构建新发展格局的机理与内涵。Fostering a new development paradigm with domestic circulation as the mainstay and domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other is a major strategy for China to take the initiative in future development. This paper recognizes the value flow of imports in the economic circulation through the non-competitive input-output model, so as to accurately measure the contribution of domestic and foreign demand to economic growth and the reliance of domestic production system on international supply chain, and on this basis, to understand the new development paradigm from the perspectives of demand and supply. We find that: first, the share of GDP driven by export decreases from 20.8% in 2010 to 14.8% in 2018, and its contribution rate to economic growth decreases from 10.4% in 2010 to 4.2% in 2018;the role of foreign demand in driving economic growth tends to be smaller,suggesting China’s economy has been shifting to a paradigm with domestic circulation as the mainstay.Second, in 36 of the 40 industrial sectors of the national economy, the share of value added driven by foreign demand tends to decline, but there remain 17 sectors such as communications, computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing, textile industry, where the share of their value added driven by foreign demand still exceeds 20%, implying that the international market still plays an important role under the new development paradigm. Third, key sectors such as communications, computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing, instrumentation manufacturing which have heavy reliance on international supply chain are the major field to improve independent innovation ability, guarantee national economic security and enhance economic competitiveness when fostering the new development paradigm. This research provides a quantitative basis for understanding the new development paradigm, helps to grasp the mechanism and connotation of fostering the new development paradigm more accurately, and puts forward more targeted policy suggest

关 键 词：新发展格局 双循环 扩大内需 自主创新 

分 类 号：F120.4[经济管理—世界经济]