高度城市化地区高速公路交通量预测准确性问题及解决策略  

Problems and Strategies of Traffic Volume Forecast of Expressway in Highly Urbanized Areas

作　　者：连萌 唐易 LIAN Meng;TANG Yi(Shenzhen Expressway Co.Ltd.,Shenzhen 518000,China;Shenzhen Urban Transport Planning Center Co.Ltd.,Shenzhen 518000,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳高速公路股份有限公司,深圳市518000 [2]深圳市城市交通规划设计研究中心股份有限公司,深圳市518000

出　　处：《公路》2022年第10期271-277,共7页Highway

摘　　要：为解决高度城市化地区高速公路的交通量预测方法准确性不足的问题,以深圳市机荷高速公路改扩建工程为实际案例,分析了高度城市化地区高速公路沿线区域城市发展特性,以及高速公路交通量、交通构成等运行特征,结合工程建设过程交通量预测工作挖掘了交通量预测产生误差的原因,最后有针对性地提出了交通量预测准确性提升策略,对于高度城市化地区高速公路建设项目的交通量预测工作具有一定参考借鉴意义。In order to solve the problem of low accuracy of traffic volume forecast of expressway in highly urbanized areas,taking the reconstruction and expansion project of Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Expressway as a practical case,the development characteristics of regional cities along the expressway in highly urbanized areas,the operation characteristics of expressway traffic volume and the traffic composition are analyzed.Combined with the traffic volume forecast in the construction process,the reasons for the inaccurate forecast of traffic volume are explored.Finally,the improvement strategy of traffic volume forecast accuracy is put forward,which is of great significance to the traffic volume forecast of expressway construction projects in highly urbanized areas.

关 键 词：高度城市化地区 高速公路 交通量预测 准确性 策略 

分 类 号：U491.14[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]