粮食生产与水资源空间错配缘由:基于比较优势理论探究  

Causes of spatial mismatch between grain production and water resources:Based on the theory of comparative advantage

作　　者：李自强 李晓云[1] 王金霞 LI Ziqiang;LI Xiaoyun;WANG Jinxia(College of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China;School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences/China Center For Agricultural Policy,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070 [2]北京大学现代农学院中国农业政策研究中心,北京100871

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2022年第9期12-29,共18页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学重大攻关项目(20JZD015);国家自然科学基金项目(71673102);“十四五”国家重点研发计划(2021YFD1600505)。

摘　　要：为探究我国粮食生产与水资源空间分布错配原因,构建测算指标体系综合评价各地区水资源承载力,测算农业用水压力评估地区粮食生产与水资源空间分布的错配程度;基于比较优势理论视角利用面板数据进行实证检验,探究粮食生产与水资源空间分布错配产生的可能原因。结果表明:1)从测算结果看,我国31省2003—2018年的粮食生产与水资源空间分布存在错配,以东北区、黄淮海区、华南区和西北区错配较为严重。2)从基准模型回归结果看,土地优势、劳动优势、资本优势对区域农业用水压力的正向推动作用超过水资源优势对区域农业用水压力的负向作用,使得粮食生产综合比较优势加大了区域农业用水压力,在类似的市场与政策环境下粮食生产与水资源空间分布错配的内在原因正是上述累加作用的结果;采用分位数回归检验结果稳健性,发现在农业用水压力极大和极小区域粮食生产比较优势对农业用水压力的加剧作用并不明显,其余分位点处均显著。3)从调节效应模型结果看,农业用水效率在粮食生产比较优势对农业用水压力的影响中具有负向调节作用,分样本回归发现农业用水压力较高区域农业用水效率调节作用更大,表明较高的农业用水效率能够有效缓解区域粮食生产比较优势对粮食生产与水资源空间分布错配的影响,且在农业用水压力较高的区域缓解作用更加明显。因此,优化粮食生产与水资源空间匹配程度,加大粮食生产布局中水资源要素约束权重,分区域提升粮食生产用水效率,有利于保障粮食安全与水资源的可持续利用。To explore the causes of spatial mismatch between grain production and water resources in China,a measurement index system was constructed to comprehensively evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in each region and measure the degree of spatial mismatch between grain production and water resources in the evaluation area of agricultural water pressure.Additionally,from the perspective of comparative advantage theory,apanel data was used to conduct empirical tests and explore the possible causes of the spatial mismatch between grain production and water resources.The results show that:1)According to the calculation results,the spatial distribution of grain production between water resources in 31provinces of China from 2003to 2018is mismatched,and the spatial distribution mismatch between grain production and water resources in north East China,Huang-Huai-Hai region,South China and Northwest China is more serious.2)According to the regression results of the benchmark model,the positive effect of land advantage,labor advantage and capital advantage on regional agricultural water pressure exceeds the negative effect of water resource advantage on regional agricultural water pressure,which makes the comprehensive comparative advantage of grain production increase the regional agricultural water pressure.Under the similar market and policy environment,the internal cause of the spatial distribution mismatch between grain production and water resources is the result of the above accumulative effects.Quantile regression is adopted to test the results.It is found that the intensification effect of grain production comparative advantage on agricultural water pressure is not obvious in the regions with the maximum or minimum agricultural water pressure,but is significant in the other sub-loci.3)According to the results of the moderating effect model,agricultural water efficiency has a negative moderating effect on the impact of comparative advantage of grain production on agricultural water pressure.Sample regres

关 键 词：粮食生产 比较优势理论 农业用水压力 农业用水效率 水资源承载力 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]