储粮损失与农户储粮决策——基于23省1199户玉米种植户的实证分析  

Storage losses and households’ storage decision in China:Based on the survey data of 1199 corn growers from 23 provinces

作　　者：罗屹 黄东 武拉平[3] 曹芳芳 LUO Yi;HUANG Dong;WU Laping;CAO Fangfang(Center for Price Cost Investigation,National Development and Reform Commission,Beijing 100045,China;Institute of Economics,Hunan Academy of Social Sciences,Changsha 410003,China;College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China;Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]国家发展和改革委员会价格成本调查中心,北京100045 [2]湖南省社会科学院经济研究所,长沙410003 [3]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [4]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2022年第9期30-42,共13页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：2015年度粮食行业公益性科研专项(201513004-2);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2022-06,ASTIP-IAED-2022-ZD-02);国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目(71961147001)。

摘　　要：为探究储粮损失对中国农户粮食储备决策的影响,更好地发挥农户储备对国家粮食安全的重要作用,利用中国23省1 199户农户的调研数据,将储粮损失引入农户储粮决策模型,并运用分位数回归方法研究储粮损失对农户储粮规模的影响。为了克服模型中潜在的内生性问题,本研究选取农户所在地年均降雨量和晾晒环节是否出现恶劣天气作为储粮损失的工具变量。结果表明:第一,储粮损失与农户储粮数量显著负相关,预期储粮损失越大,农户储粮规模将会下降;第二,储粮损失的系数绝对值呈下降趋势,表明储粮损失对储粮数量大的农户影响较小,受储粮损失影响较大的是中小规模农户。第三,粮食产量、市场发育程度、收入水平、牲畜饲养情况、节约意识等因素对农户储粮数量产生显著影响。因此,政府应推广先进的储粮技术及减损方法,帮助农户减少储粮损失,实现藏粮于技、藏粮于民。In order to analysis the impact of storage losses on households’ storage decision,based on the survey of1 199households from 23provinces in China,this study introduced storage losses into the household storage decision model,and used the quantile regression method to analysis the effect on storage loss on households’ storage.In order to overcome the potential endogeneity problems,this study selected the average annual rainfall of the household’s location and whether bad weather appeared in the grain drying stage as the instrumental variables of storage loss analysis.The results showed that:First,the household storage was significantly affected by the storage losses.Second,the absolute value of the coefficient of storage loss showed a downward trend,indicating that the storage decision of small and medium-scale farmers was greatly affected by storage loss.Third,yield,market price,the development of market and household income also significantly related to household storage.Thus,the government should pay more attention to the storage loss,and promote farmers to reduce the loss by promoting advanced grain storage technologies and methods.

关 键 词：农户储粮 储粮损失 粮食储备模型 工具变量 

分 类 号：F326.1[经济管理—产业经济]