俄罗斯进口替代战略新动向  

New Trends of Russia’s Import Substitution Strategy

作　　者：尚月[1] 韩奕琛 李静雅 Shang Yue;Han Yichen;Li Jingya

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院俄罗斯中亚研究所

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2022年第10期34-44,51,62,共13页

摘　　要：俄罗斯开展“特别军事行动”后,西方国家对俄实施了空前严厉的制裁,俄罗斯关键工业领域备受打击、深陷困境。为此,俄罗斯调整体制机制、加速修订行业规划、出台系列配套措施,进一步推进实施进口替代战略,更强调技术主权、更侧重与安全相关的行业、更重视非市场手段。但俄罗斯进口替代战略仍面临着多重因素掣肘,其路径选择有限、工业基础和技术基础薄弱、生产链和供应链亟需重建。不过,需要指出的是,俄罗斯的进口替代既不意味着全领域替代和全面自我封闭,也不会是一项短期战略;同时,平行进口将成为俄未来一个时内进口替代的权宜之计,而加强与非西方国家尤其是以中国为代表的亚太国家合作则是大势所趋,因此中俄务实合作迎来新机遇。After Russia launched the“Special military action,”western countries imposed unprecedented severe sanctions on Russia,and Russia’s key industrial sectors have been hit hard.To this end,Russia has adjusted its system and mechanism,accelerated the revision of industry planning and issued supporting measures to promote the import substitution strategy.It put more emphasis on technological sovereignty,security-related industries,and using nonmarket means.However,Russia’s import substitution strategy is faced with multiple constraints.At the same time,Russia’s import substitution does not mean all-field substitution and total self-isolation,nor will it be a short-term strategy.Parallel imports will become an expedient way for Russia’s import substitution in the future.Strengthening cooperation with non-western countries,especially Asia Pacific countries such as China,is a general trend.Therefore,there will be new opportunities in the pragmatic cooperation between China and Russia.

关 键 词：俄罗斯 西方制裁 进口替代 中俄合作 

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