基于动态贝叶斯网络的储罐区燃爆事故多米诺效应研究  

Domino Effect Study of Tank Area Ignition and Explosion Accident based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

作　　者：柯特 陈先锋[1] 陈月[1,2] 黄楚原 刘丽娟 KE Te;CHEN Xian-feng;CHEN Yue;HUANG Chu-yuan;LIU Li-juan(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;School of Environmental Engineering,Wuhan Textile University,Wuhan 430200,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,武汉430070 [2]武汉纺织大学环境工程学院,武汉430200

出　　处：《爆破》2022年第4期186-191,203,共7页Blasting

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52274224、52104213);湖北省安全生产专项资金项目(SJZX20211003);湖北省重点研发计划(2021BCA216)。

摘　　要：化工储罐区存放多为易燃易爆的有毒危险化学物质,一旦发生泄漏,进而会引发燃爆事故,后果将不堪设想。基于动态贝叶斯网络方法,选取某LNG、LPG储罐区,确定事故多米诺效应的演变过程、事故过程时间节点以及各层级间的影响作用,借助贝叶斯计算软件分析,提出动态贝叶斯网络多米诺效应分析方法,对热辐射值进行二次计算,运用设备损坏概率模型,得到0~37.55 min、37.55~47.55 min、47.55~52.55 min和52.55~57.55 min四个时间段内各储罐多米诺事故扩展概率。考虑对单个以及多个储罐采取应急措施,设置不同置信度分别对应分配不同程度应急救援力量使储罐达到安全状态的程度,得到初始事故发生后在应急救援力量充足和应急救援力量有限情况下各事故储罐关键时刻事故发生概率。结果表明:在应急救援力量充足和应急救援力量有限情况下,优先考虑对化工园区安全性影响最大储罐采取应急措施,可大大降低化工园区燃爆风险,提升化工园区安全性。结论为后续储罐区燃爆风险的评估提供理论依据,为消防力量分配提供数据支撑,为多米诺效应事故应急决策提供指导作用。A chemical storage tank area stores most of the inflammable and explosive toxic and dangerous chemicals.Once leakage occurs,it will cause ignition and explosion accidents,and the consequences will be unimaginable.Based on the dynamic Bayesian network method,an LNG and LPG storage tank area was selected to determine the evolution process of the accident domino effect,the time nodes of the accident process and the influence between different levels.With the help of Bayesian computing software,the domino effect analysis method of dynamic Bayesian network is proposed,and the thermal radiation value is calculated twice.Then,the extended probability of domino accident of each storage tank in four time periods of 0~37.55 min,37.55~47.55 min,47.55~52.55 min and 52.55~57.55 min was obtained by using the equipment damage probability model.Considering emergency measures for individual and multiple tanks,different levels of confidence are set to allocate different degrees of emergency rescue force to make the storage tank reach the safe state.Based on this,the accident probability of each accident storage tank at the critical moment is obtained under the condition of sufficient and limited emergency rescue force after the initial accident.The results imply that under the condition of sufficient emergency rescue force and limited emergency rescue force,priority should be given to taking emergency measures for the storage tank that has the greatest impact on the safety of the chemical industry park,which can greatly reduce the risk of ignition and explosion.

关 键 词：化工储罐区 燃爆事故 动态贝叶斯网络 多米诺效应 应急措施 

分 类 号：O381[理学—流体力学]