基于组合赋权和改进VIKOR的动态威胁评估  

Dynamic Threat Assessment Based on Combination Weighting and Improved VIKOR

作　　者：李威[1] 卢盈齐[1] 范成礼[1] 霍润泽 Li Wei;Lu Yingqi;Fan Chengli;Huo Runze(Air and Missile Defense College,Air Force Engineering University,Xi’an 710051,China)

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学防空反导学院,西安710051

出　　处：《航空兵器》2022年第5期66-75,共10页Aero Weaponry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72001214);国家社会科学基金项目(18BGJ070);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2020JQ-484)。

摘　　要：针对目前防空作战目标威胁评估方法存在的不足,提出一种基于组合赋权和改进多属性妥协解决策(VIKOR)的动态威胁评估方法。首先,通过灰色关联分析和系统聚类对AHP法进行改进,得到主观权重,引入指标相关性对熵权法进行改进,确定客观权重,通过主客观组合得到最终权重;然后,建立了基于后悔理论改进VIKOR的威胁评估模型;最后,根据时间度准则构建信息熵-时间度和变异系数-时间度的优化模型,并通过博弈论思想得到时间序列权重,将多时刻的目标信息进行融合得到最终的威胁评估结果。实验仿真结果表明,改进的方法得到了更加科学合理的指标权重,威胁评估结果能够充分反映决策者的心理偏好和目标的动态变化,验证了方法的有效性。Aiming at the shortcomings of current air defense target threat assessment methods,a dynamic threat assessment method based on combination weighting and improved multi-attribute compromise solution decision(VIKOR)is proposed.Firstly,the AHP method is improved through grey correlation analysis and systematic clustering to obtain the subjective weight,the index correlation is introduced to improve the entropy weight method to determine the objective weight,and the final weight is obtained through subjective and objective combination.Then,an improved VIKOR threat assessment model based on regret theory is established.Finally,the optimization models of information entropy-time degree and coefficient of variation-time degree are constructed according to the time degree criterion,the time series weight is obtained through the idea of game theory,and the multi-time target information is integrated to obtain the final threat assessment result.The experimental simulation results show that the improved method obtains more scientific and reasonable index weights,and the threat assessment results can fully reflect the decision makers’psychological preferences and dynamic changes of targets,which verifies the effectiveness of the method.

关 键 词：威胁评估 后悔理论 组合赋权 VIKOR 时间度 防空作战 防空武器系统 

分 类 号：TJ760[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程] V21[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]