江西省城镇化与三次产业发展的融合效应研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析  

A Study on the Three Industries’Development and their Integration Effect of Urbanization in Jiangxi Province--An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

作　　者：尹金[1] 钟诚 YIN Jin;ZHONG Cheng(Pingxiang University,Pingxiang Jiangxi 337000,China)

机构地区：[1]萍乡学院,江西萍乡337000

出　　处：《萍乡学院学报》2022年第4期18-23,共6页Journal of Pingxiang University

基　　金：萍乡市科技局科技项目(2017GY008)。

摘　　要：城镇化与三次产业的发展有着紧密的联系,本文依据1978—2020年的数据,采用VAR模型对江西省城镇化与三次产业的发展情况进行了实证分析。结果表明:改革开放以来,江西省第一、第三产业的发展对城镇化起到了积极作用,而城镇化也助推了第三产业的发展;从短期看,江西省三次产业的发展对城镇化的影响程度要高于其反作用,其中第三产业对城镇化的贡献度最高、第二产业最低,反之城镇化对第三产业发展贡献度最高、第二产业最低。在经济新常态下,三次产业的协调发展对江西省城镇化水平的提高起到主要作用,而城镇化水平的提高也会对江西省产业结构的升级产生深远而持久的影响。Urbanization is closely related to the three industries’development.Based on the data from 1978 to 2020,this paper uses VAR model to make an empirical analysis on the development of urbanization and three industries’development in Jiangxi Province.The results show that:Since the reform and opening up,the development of the primary and tertiary industries in Jiangxi province has played a positive role in its urbanization,and the urbanization has also boosted the development of the tertiary industry.In the short term,the impact of the three industries’development on the urbanization in Jiangxi province is higher than its counteractive,among which the tertiary industry has the highest contribution to the urbanization,and the secondary industry has the lowest contribution.Conversely,urbanization has the highest contribution to the development of the tertiary industry,and lowest to the secondary industry.Under the new normal of economy,the coordinated development of the three industries will play a major role in the improvement of the urbanization level of Jiangxi Province,and the improvement of the urbanization level will also have a far-reaching and lasting impact on the upgrading of the industrial structure of Jiangxi Province.

关 键 词：江西省 城镇化 三次产业 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]