基于树轮宽度数据重建的阴山东部过去399年降水变化  

Precipitation variation reconstructed based on tree-ring width data for the past 399 years in the eastern Yinshan Mountains,China

作　　者：李明启[1,2] 邵雪梅 聂文政[1,2] LI Ming-qi;SHAO Xue-mei;NIE Wen-zheng(Key Laboratory of Land Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Scien-ces,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2022年第10期2796-2804,共9页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603302)资助。

摘　　要：基于阴山东部油松树轮样芯,建立采样区域树轮宽度年表,并计算器测时期(AD 1952—2007)月均温和月降水量与树轮宽度年表的相关系数。结果表明:树轮宽度年表与上一年9月至当年6月降水量变化的相关性最高(r=0.73,n=56,P<0.01),基于此重建了阴山东部过去399年(AD 1619—2017)上一年9月至当年6月的降水量变化历史。该重建解释了器测时期上一年9月至当年6月降水量54.9%的方差,经“留一法”交叉验证和分段独立检验证明,重建方程稳定可靠。在年代际尺度上,过去399年存在4个湿润时期(AD 1619—1663、AD 1705—1711、AD 1945—1963和AD 1979—2017)和4个干旱时期(AD 1734—1767、AD 1786—1814、AD 1839—1867和AD 1888—1942)。其中,AD 1979—2017是最湿润的时期,而AD 1888—1942是干旱持续最长的时段,包含最干旱时期1920s晚期。功率谱分析显示,过去399年该区降水具有2~7年和125年准周期变化。通过与邻近区域重建对比及空间相关分析表明,本降水重建序列可以较好地代表研究区域的降水变化。Based on the tree-ring increment cores of Pinus tabuliformis collected from the eastern Yinshan Mountains,the tree-ring width chronology was developed.The correlation coefficients were calculated between the chronology and monthly mean temperature and monthly precipitation during the instrumental period of AD 1952-2007.The results showed that the highest correlation was found between the total precipitation from September of previous year to June of current year and the chronology(r=0.73,n=56,P<0.01).Based on the correlation,the September of previous year to June of current year total precipitation variation was reconstructed in the eastern Yin-shan Mountains during the past 399 years(AD 1619-2017).The reconstruction explained 54.9%of the variation in the total precipitation from September of previous year to June of current year for the calibration period(AD 1952-2007).Both the‘leave-one-out’cross validation and split-period validation showed that the model was relatively robust,with sufficient skills of estimation and high reliability.At the decadal scale,there were four wet periods(AD 1619-1663,AD 1705-1711,AD 1945-1963,and AD 1979-2017))and four dry periods(AD 1734-1767,AD 1786-1814,AD 1839-1867,and AD 1888-1942)in the past 399 years.Among those periods,the AD 1979-2017 was the wettest period,and AD 1888-1942 was the longest dry duration with the driest period at the late 1920s.Results of power spectral analysis revealed cyclic fluctuations of precipitation series on 2-7 years and 125 years.In addition,the comparison with other reconstructions and spatial correlation analysis indicated that the reconstructed precipitation series well represented regional scale precipitation variation.

关 键 词：树轮 降水重建 阴山东部 农牧交错带 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]