基于优化的MaxEnt模型预测海灰翅夜蛾潜在地理分布区  

Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Spodoptera littoralis based on the optimal MaxEnt model

作　　者：赵浩翔 冼晓青[1] 郭建洋[1] 张桂芬[1] 王瑞[1] 刘万学[1] 万方浩[1] ZHAO Haoxiang;XIAN Xiaoqing;GUO Jianyang;ZHANG Guifen;WANG Rui;LIU Wanxue;WAN Fanghao(State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests,Institute of Plant Protection,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100193,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院植物保护研究所,植物病虫害生物学国家重点实验室,北京100193

出　　处：《植物保护》2022年第6期16-22,48,共8页Plant Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFC2600400);中国农业科学院科技创新工程(caascx-2017-2022-IAS)。

摘　　要：海灰翅夜蛾Spodoptera littoralis是全球范围内热带和亚热带地区的重大农业入侵害虫,也是我国进境检疫性有害生物,其对欧洲、非洲和亚洲地区的农作物产生严重危害,并造成大量的经济损失。本研究基于海灰翅夜蛾的世界617个分布记录和8个生物气候因子,利用优化的MaxEnt模型预测其在全球和我国的潜在地理分布区,并进一步分析其在我国的传入、定殖和扩散风险。结果表明:气温是影响海灰翅夜蛾潜在地理分布的主导生物气候因子。其在全球的潜在地理分布区主要位于北美洲南部、南美洲、非洲、亚洲西部和东部、欧洲南部和大洋洲,在我国主要位于东部和南部地区。在我国,其潜在地理分布区范围内有着较多的贸易口岸和广泛的寄主分布,增大了其传入我国的风险,并为其定殖和扩散提供了有利的条件。建议海关口岸、农林行业部门加强对海灰翅夜蛾的检疫、调查和监测工作,严防海灰翅夜蛾传入。Spodoptera littoralis, the major agricultural invasive alien insect in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide and the quarantine pest in China, has caused serious damage to crops in Europe, Africa and Asia, and resulted in substantial economic losses. Based on the 617 distribution records of Spodoptera littoralis and eight bioclimatic variables, we used the optimal MaxEnt model to predict the potential geographical distribution of S.littoralis worldwide, and analyse the risks of its introduction, colonization and dispersal in China. Our results showed that the temperature variables have the great impact on the potential geographical distribution of S.littoralis. The potential geographical distribution of S.littoralis was located in Southern North America, South America, Africa, Western and Eastern Asia, Southern Europe and Oceania in the world, and Eastern and Southern China. The potential geographical distribution areas of S.littoralis have many trade ports and host plants, which increased the risk of introduction and provided favorable conditions for its colonization and dispersal in China. The customs, agriculture and forestry industry departments should strengthen the investigation, quarantine and monitoring of S.littoralis to prevent the invasion of S.littoralis.

关 键 词：海灰翅夜蛾 生物入侵 潜在地理分布 MAXENT 

分 类 号：S433.4[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]