基于国际贸易和环境气候的生物入侵风险评估综合模型研究初探  

Study on integrated model for invasion risk of alien species based on the data of international trade and bioclimatic variables

作　　者：段梦格 冼晓青[3] 王书平 钱程 乔慧捷[2] 李新江[1] DUAN Mengge;XIAN Xiaoqing;WANG Shuping;QIAN Cheng;QIAO Huijie;LI Xinjiang(School of Life Sciences,Hebei University,Baoding 071002,China;Institute of Zoology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Institute of Plant Protection,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100193,China;Technical Center of Shanghai Customs for Inspection and Quarantine of Animals,Plants and Foods,Shanghai 200135,China)

机构地区：[1]河北大学生命科学学院,保定071002 [2]中国科学院动物研究所,北京100101 [3]中国农业科学院植物保护研究所,北京100193 [4]上海海关动植物与食品检验检疫技术中心,上海200135

出　　处：《植物保护》2022年第6期31-41,共11页Plant Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFD1400200)。

摘　　要：国际贸易所带来的外来生物入侵已经成为各个国家面临的重要问题,对其进行风险评估迫在眉睫。为了能够对跨国运输带来的生物入侵风险进行量化评估,我们以联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO)的国际贸易、WorldClim的环境气候因子、全球生物多样性信息网络(GBIF)的物种分布和国内交通运输等数据为基础,以R语言为主要计算工具,建立综合分析外来生物入侵风险的评估方法。以苹果蠹蛾Cydia pomonella和番茄潜叶蛾Tuta absoluta为例计算其引入风险和定殖可能性,综合量化评估国际贸易带来的物种入侵风险。借此结果对国际进口贸易从入侵风险角度有针对性地提出合理建议。The invasion of alien species caused by international trade has become an important problem to all countries, and it is urgent to evaluate the risk. An integrated model to assess the invasive risk of alien species was established by using R programing language with data sets from the international trade data via Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO), environmental climate data in WorldClim, occurrence records in Global Biodiversity Information Facility(GBIF), and Chinese transportation data, so that we may quantitatively assess the risk of alien species invasion caused by transnational transportation. We also took codling moth(Cydia pomonella) and the South American tomato leafminer(Tuta absoluta) as examples to calculate their introduction and establishment risk from multiple perspectives, and evaluated the invasion risk caused by international trade comprehensively. We hope that the research can pull out the reasonable suggestions for international trade from the perspective of invasion risk.

关 键 词：国际贸易 外来物种入侵 人类活动 生态位模型 评估风险 

分 类 号：S45[农业科学—植物保护] S41-30