基于组合预测模型的内蒙古卫生总费用预测及分析  

Trend Prediction and Analysis of Total Health Expenditure in Inner Mongolia Based on Combined Forecasting Model

作　　者：胡嘉靖 范艳存 刘思佳 薛清元 HU Jiajing(College of Health Management,Inner Mongolia University,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia,010100,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古医科大学卫生管理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010100 [2]内蒙古自治区卫生政策研究所,内蒙古呼和浩特015001

出　　处：《医学与社会》2022年第12期24-27,34,共5页Medicine and Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目,编号为72064032;内蒙古高等学校科研项目,编号为NJSY21607、NJSY22607。

摘　　要：目的:分析内蒙古2007-2019年卫生总费用变化趋势及其构成,利用组合模型预测“十四五”期间内蒙古卫生总费用的变化趋势,为相关政策规划的制定提供科学依据和支持。方法:使用GM(1,1)、DGM(1,1)、DNGM(1,1)、灰色预测模型和神经网络构成的组合模型,分别对内蒙古2007-2019年政府卫生支出、社会卫生支出、个人卫生支出数据进行训练和拟合,采用误差最小的模型测算内蒙古卫生总费用及其构成的变化趋势。结果:由灰色预测模型和神经网络模型构建的组合模型预测效果最好,到2025年内蒙古卫生总费用将增长到1415.10亿元,其中政府、社会、个人的卫生支出占比分别为27.30%、43.15%、29.55%。结论:内蒙古卫生总费用将持续增长,筹资结构趋于合理。“十四五”期间内蒙古需要合理配置卫生费用投入,通过精细化管理和绩效评估结构调整提高卫生费用的绩效,通过宏观政策手段降低个人卫生支出占比,促进内蒙古卫生政策可持续发展。Objective:To analyze the change trend and composition of the total health expenditure in Inner Mongolia from 2007 to 2019,and to predict the changing trend of total health expenditure in Inner Mongolia during the "14 th Five-Year Plan" by using the combined model,so as to provide scientific basis and support for the formulation of relevant policy plans.Methods:Using GM(1,1),DGM(1,1),DNGM(1,1) and a combined model composed of gray prediction models and neural networks to analyze the government health expenditure,social health expenditure,and personal health expenditure of Inner Mongolia from 2007 to 2019.Expenditure data were trained and fitted,and the smallest error model was used to measure the change trend of the total health expenditure and its composition in Inner Mongolia.Results:The combined model constructed by the gray prediction model and the neural network model had the best prediction effect.By 2025,the total health expenditure in Inner Mongolia will increase to 141.51 billion yuan,among which the proportion of government health expenditure,social health expenditure and personal health expenditure will reach 27.30%,43.15%,and 29.55% respectively.Conclusion:The total health expenditure in Inner Mongolia will continue to grow,and the financing structure will become more reasonable.During the "14 th Five-Year Plan",Inner Mongolia needs to allocate health expenditures reasonably,improve the performance of health expenditures through refined management and performance evaluation structural adjustment,and reduce the proportion of personal health expenditures through macro policy measures,so as to promote the sustainable development of Inner Mongolia’s health policy.

关 键 词：卫生总费用 卫生支出 卫生筹资政策 内蒙古 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]