我国在婚育龄妇女生育二孩的影响因素分析  

Influencing Factors of the Birth of a Second Child in Married Women of Childbearing Age in China

作　　者：王振杰[1] 郑翩翩 孙陈希 WANG Zhenjie(Institute of Population Research,Peking University,Beijing,100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学人口研究所,北京100871 [2]北京大学信息科学技术学院机器感知与智能教育部重点实验室,北京100871

出　　处：《医学与社会》2022年第12期35-39,共5页Medicine and Society

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目,编号为20BRK020。

摘　　要：目的:分析我国在婚育龄妇女生育二孩的影响因素,为健全和完善我国生育政策提供参考。方法:使用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据,利用随机森林算法对自变量进行重要性排序并降维,将袋外估算误差率最小的变量集纳入logistic回归模型,以分析我国在婚育龄妇女生育二孩影响因素。结果:将随机森林模型随机种子数设为222,结果得出变量重要性排名前10位依次为第一个孩子性别、受教育程度、居住地、年龄、家庭总收入、住房面积、初婚年龄、就业状况、兄弟姐妹数、民族、健康状况。逐步随机森林分析显示,当变量数为10-11时袋外估算误差率最低。Logistic回归模型显示,在婚育龄妇女受教育程度越高、家庭收入越高、初婚年龄越晚生育二孩概率越低(P_(趋势)<0.001),住房面积越大、兄弟姐妹数越多越可能生育二孩(P_(趋势)<0.001)。结论:经济环境、家庭规模、婚姻特征是我国在婚育龄妇女生育二孩的影响因素。应进一步落实生育政策,发挥政策效果,推动人口长期均衡发展。Objective:To analyze the influencing factors the birth of a second child in married women of childbearing age in China,so as to provide references for improving fertility polices of China.Methods:Using the 2017 national fertility sampling survey data,the random forest algorithm was used to sort the importance of independent variables and reduce their dimensions.The variable set with the smallest error rate of out-of-bag estimation was incorporated into the logistic regression model to analyze the factors influencing the birth of a second child in married women of childbearing age in China.Results:The first 10 ranking of variable importance is the first child’s gender,education level,place of residence,age,total family income,housing area,age at first marriage,employment status,number of siblings,ethnicity,and health status under consideration of random seed with 222.The stepwise random forest analysis showed that the error rate of out-of-bag estimation was the lowest when the number of variables was 10-11.The logistic regression model showed that the higher the education level of women of childbearing age,the higher the family income,and the later the first marriage age,the lower the probability of having a second child(P_(trend)<0.001).The larger the housing area and the greater the number of siblings,the more likely it was to have a second child(P_(trend) <0.001).Conclusion:The economic environment,family size,and marital characteristics of married women of childbearing age in China are the influencing factors for their second child.It is necessary to further implement the birth policy,give full play to the effect of the policy,and promote the long-term balanced development of the population.

关 键 词：生育政策 二孩 在婚妇女 育龄期 影响因素 

分 类 号：R173[医药卫生—妇幼卫生保健]