计及时变转移速率与计划检修的继电保护设备动作预测方法  

Action prediction model of relay protection devices considering the time-varying transfer rate and planned maintenance

作　　者：陶军 钟鸣 周洋 王志华 胡佳佳 TAO Jun;ZHONG Ming;ZHOU Yang;WANG Zhihua;HU Jiajia(Inner Mongolia Electric Power Research Institute of Inner Mongolia Power(Group)Co.,Ltd.,Hohhot 010020,China;Hohhot Power Supply Bureau of Inner Mongolia Power(Group)Co.,Ltd.,Hohhot 010050,China;Wuhan Kemov Electric Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430223,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古电力(集团)有限责任公司内蒙古电力科学研究院,内蒙古呼和浩特010020 [2]内蒙古电力(集团)有限责任公司呼和浩特供电局,内蒙古呼和浩特010050 [3]武汉凯默电气有限公司,湖北武汉430223

出　　处：《电力科学与技术学报》2022年第5期133-143,共11页Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology

基　　金：2019年内蒙古自治区科技攻关项目(2019GG373)。

摘　　要：目前在继电保护设备动作行为预测中,利用状态转移模型进行状态分类与概率预测时,设备老化、计划检修因素对预测模型影响的描述不够准确,难以对继电保护设备的未来动作情况进行准确反映。本文基于表征设备老化及检修的改进三参数Weibull分布,利用鲸鱼算法求解更为准确的改进三参数Weibull分布函数,构建了具有时变转移速率的连续时间Markov链状态转移模型,并利用计划检修节点表征保护设备的役龄回退,利用状态观测节点简化转移概率计算,进而基于Markov状态转移模型提出了计及时变转移速率与计划检修的动作行为预测方法。基于保护实例数据计算拟合了Weibull曲线,通过仿真对比实验对预测结果进行综合分析,验证了状态转移模型及预测方法的合理性。At present,in the behavior prediction of relay protection equipment,the state transition model is used for state classification and probability prediction.The description of the influence of equipment aging and planned maintenance factors on the prediction model is not accurate enough,and it is thus difficult to accurately reflect the future behavior of the relay protection equipment.Based on the improved three-parameter Weibull distribution that characterizes equipment aging and maintenance,this paper uses the whale algorithm to further enhance the three-parameter Weibull distribution function,constructs a continuous Markov chain state transition model with a time-varying transition rate.In this model,planned maintenance nodes are used to characterize the service age regression of the protection equipment,the state observation node to simplify the calculation of the transition probability,and then an action behavior prediction algorithm that calculates the time-varying transition rate and planned maintenance can be proposed.The Weibull curve is calculated and fitted based on the case database,and the predicted actions are comprehensively analyzed through the simulated comparison experiments,which verifies the rationality of the state transition model and the prediction algorithm.

关 键 词：继电保护 动作行为预测 三参数WEIBULL分布 时变转移速率 

分 类 号：TM774[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]