可变分数阶累加灰色模型及其在我国航空管制员中的预测应用  

Deformable Accumulation Grey model and Its Forecasting Application on Air Traffic Controller in China

作　　者：张亚丽[1] 杨晓江[1] 崔玮 ZHANG Ya-li;YANG Xiao-jiang;CUI Wei(School of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China;School of Economics and Management,Nanjing Institute of Technology,Nanjing 211167,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016 [2]南京工程学院经济与管理学院,江苏南京211167

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2022年第10期114-122,共9页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金(2018M630562)。

摘　　要：为了提高传统灰色模型的预测精度,提出了可变形分数阶导数灰色模型,该模型可以使用实际序列的初始值,并且证明了累积阶数(α)与误差之间的相关关系。分析结果表明,可变形分数阶导数灰色模型可以增强传统灰色模型的预测能力.并且,以飞行支援架次和空中交通管制员的数量为例,验证了这一模型与传统灰色模型相比,预测精度显著提升。Deformable fractional derivative grey model is proposed to improve the predictive accuracy of traditional grey models.The proposed model can use the initial value of actual sequence.The relationship between the accumulation order(α) and the error is proved.The comparison results show that the new model can enhance the forecasting ability of the traditional grey models.The flight support sorties and the number of air traffic controller are predicted by the proposed model in China,respectively.

关 键 词：可变分数 灰色预测模型 空中交通控制器 工作负荷 

分 类 号：V355.1[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]