考虑社交媒体因素的信息披露与股价崩盘风险——基于情绪与信息路径的分析  

Information Disclosure and Stock Price Crash Risk Considering Social Media Factors—Analysis Based on Emotion and Information Path

作　　者：徐维军[1,2] 高海 谷任 季昱丞[1,2] XU Wei-jun;GAO Hai;GU Ren;JI Yu-chen(School of Business Administration,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,China;Guangzhou Financial Services Innovation and Risk Management Research Base,Guangzhou 510640,China;School of Economics and Finance,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学工商管理学院,广东广州510640 [2]广州金融服务创新与风险管理研究基地,广东广州510640 [3]华南理工大学经济与金融学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《华南理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第6期42-59,共18页Journal of South China University of Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“公司披露的信息属性对资本市场及实体经济的影响:基于信息反馈效应视角”(72271095);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金“社交媒体环境下公司信息披露决策和投资者反应研究:基于市场微观结构模型和文本分析方法”(2019A1515011752);广州金融服务创新与风险管理研究基地项目(PTJS202204)。

摘　　要：利用2005—2020年沪深A股上市公司数据,从投资者情绪和信息不对称两种路径考虑企业信息披露对股价崩盘风险的影响,并探究社交媒体在其中发挥的作用。研究结果表明,企业信息的披露并不是越多越好,过多的披露可能会加剧股价崩盘风险,而社交互动可以缓解这种负向作用。路径检验发现,一方面,企业信息的大量发布,引起投资者情绪的极端化,产生非理性投资行为;另一方面,大量信息的冗余加大了投资者获取有效信息的难度,提高了信息不对称程度,在情绪与信息两种路径综合作用下,加剧了股价崩盘风险。考虑社交互动具体影响机制时发现,社交互动的调节作用亦来自两种影响的叠加,一方面,投资者之间的社交互动会缓和极端情绪;另一方面,社交媒体平台使得噪声信息更多,投资者提取有效信息难度上升,加大了信息不对称程度。研究结果对信息披露制度的进一步规范与社交媒体平台的管理提供了启示。Using the data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2005 to 2020,this paper considers the impact of corporate information disclosure on stock price crash risk from the perspective of emotional path and information path,and explores the role of social media in it.The results show that the number of corporate information disclosure is not the more the better,excessive disclosure may aggravate the risk of stock price crash,and social interaction can alleviate this negative effect.The path test finds that on the one hand,a large number of corporate information releases lead to extreme investor sentiment and irrational investment behavior.On the other hand,the redundancy of a large amount of information increases the difficulty for investors to obtain effective information and improves the degree of information asymmetry.Under the combined effect of emotion and information,the stock price crash risk is aggravated.When considering the specific influencing mechanism of social interaction,it is found that the moderating effect of social interaction also comes from the superposition of the two effects.On the one hand,social interaction between investors will ease extreme emotions.On the other hand,more noise in social platforms makes it harder for investors to extract useful information,which increases the degree of information asymmetry.The results of this paper provide enlightenment for further specification of information disclosure system and management of social media platforms.

关 键 词：社交互动 投资者情绪 信息不对称 股价崩盘风险 

分 类 号：F830.91[经济管理—金融学]