双向双车道公路超车行为的演化博弈分析  

Evolutionary game analysis of overtaking behaviour on two-lane highway

作　　者：岳全胜 冯忠祥 李靖宇 YUE Quan-sheng;FENG Zhong-xiang;LI Jing-yu(School of Automotive and Transportation Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;College of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学,汽车与交通工程学院,合肥230009 [2]合肥工业大学,土木与水利工程学院,合肥230009

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2022年第4期19-30,共12页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71971073)。

摘　　要：双车道公路是我国公路交通道路网中最重要的形式之一,为城镇居民的出行起到了重要作用。双车道公路超车行为复杂,为探究双车道超车行为中前车驾驶人和后车驾驶人的行为心理与动态决策过程,基于演化博弈理论对双车道公路上的超车行为展开研究,构建了超车过程中前车驾驶人和后车驾驶人的支付矩阵;编制了双车道公路超车效用评价问卷,并进行线上调查;基于672份有效样本,使用普通最小二乘法构建回归方程,以确定效用影响变量的权重系数;基于所建立的支付矩阵,建立了前车驾驶人和后车驾驶人的演化博弈模型。应用动态系统的局部稳定性原理,确定了不同策略支付关系下的演化稳定策略,模拟了博弈双方的策略选择过程。仿真结果表明,该模型能够反映博弈双方的实际决策过程。前、后车驾驶人选择消极应对和强行超车的初始比例,对博弈双方的均衡状态以及博弈演化时间有着较大影响。通过系统地探索博弈双方的策略选择过程,本研究为分析驾驶行为动机提供了一种新的方法,并为保障双车道公路超车安全提供了理论基础。Two-lane highways are among the most important types of highway traffic networks in China,and they play a critical role in the transportation of rural residents.Overtaking behavior on two-lane highways is complicated.The aim of this study is to investigate the behavior psychology and dynamic decision-making process of the driver in front and the driver behind in the two-lane overtaking behavior.This study analyzed the overtaking behavior on the two-lane highway based on evolutionary game theory and constructed the payment matrix of the driver in front and the driver behind during the overtaking process.A questionnaire was developed to evaluate the utility of overtaking on two-lane highways,and an online survey was conducted.Next,based on 672 valid samples,the ordinary least-squares method was used to derive 3 regression equations to determine the weight coefficients of the utility influencing variables.Finally,based on the established payment matrix,the evolutionary game model of the driver in front and the driver behind was established.Based on the principle of local stability of dynamic systems,the evolutionary stability strategies with different strategies were determined,and the strategy selection process of both players was simulated.The simulation results show that the model can reflect the actual decision-making process of both sides of the game.The selection of the initial ratio of negative coping and overtaking between the front car and the rear car significantly influences the equilibrium state of both sides and the evolution time of the game.By systematically investigating the strategy selection process of both sides of the game,this study proposes a new method for analyzing the motivation of driving behavior and provides a theoretical basis for ensuring the safety of overtaking on a two-lane highway.

关 键 词：公路运输 超车行为 博弈论 双车道公路 交通模拟仿真 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]