暴雨灾害短视频引发舆情危机的BN研究  

Research on BN of network public opinion crisis risk caused by short videos of rainstorm disaster

作　　者：吕伟[1] 周雯楠 陈文涛[1] 韩业凡 房志明 LYU Wei;ZHOU Wennan;CHEN Wentao;HAN Yefan;FANG Zhiming(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China;School of Management,Shanghai University of Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2022年第11期192-199,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(52072286)。

摘　　要：为减少短视频引发的网络舆情危机风险,以“7·20”河南暴雨灾害为例,基于网络短视频,从突发事件的灾情程度、应对行为、视频属性、舆情情感倾向和舆情传播扩散度5个方面,构建短视频网络舆情危机风险的预测指标体系,利用贝叶斯网络(BN)构建预测模型,探讨舆情预测准确度。结果表明:经检验测试,该模型可有效预测网络舆情危机风险等级,公众面对突发事件时的应急响应行为对舆情危机风险等级、情感倾向和传播扩散度均有重要影响;在灾情严重且公众的行为应对较消极的情境下,舆情爆发的主因为公众的情感倾向和舆情的传播扩散度;相较于微博转发量和点赞量,评论量高的微博短视频更容易引发网络舆情危机。In order to reduce the risk of network public opinion crisis caused by short videos,taking the"7·20"Henan rainstorm incident as an example,this paper constructed a prediction index system for the risk of public opinion crisis based on short-form online videos from five aspects:the degree of disaster,response behavior,video attributes,public opinion sentiment tendency and public opinion spread diffusion of the unexpected incident.BN was used to build a prediction model to discuss the accuracy of public opinion forecast.The validation results indicate that the model can effectively predict the risk level of network public opinion crisis,and the public's response behavior in the face of emergencies has an important influence on the risk level of public opinion crisis,sentiment tendency and the spread of public opinion.When the disaster is severe and the public's behavior is relatively negative,the main reason for the outbreak of public opinion is the public's emotional tendency and the spread of public opinion.Short videos with a high number of comments are more likely to trigger network public opinion crises than retweets and likes.

关 键 词：暴雨灾害 网络短视频 舆情危机风险 贝叶斯网络(BN) 舆情预测 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]