基线筹划、预算报告与预算-政策联结  

Baseline Projections,Budget Reports and Budget-policy Link

作　　者：潘昊宇 PAN Hao-yu

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学财政税务学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2022年第12期16-26,共11页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

摘　　要：基线筹划是形成和强化预算-政策联结的前提和保障,但是相关研究和改革远不充分。实践中我国预算与政策脱节的现象非常明显,表现为预算偏离国家战略重点和政策优先性,因此造成严重的后果,不仅预算资金大量浪费,也削弱了政策可持续性。本文致力于论证,包括基数法、法定支出等各种原因导致的预算-政策间脱节问题,只有系统引入基线筹划才能得到最佳解决,伴随现行预算报告的深度改革,效果将更为显著。本文还表明,主流观点所推崇的零基预算作用有限,并不能解决预算-政策脱节问题。通过清晰区分政策变化和非政策变化,以及确认这两类变化的财政影响,基线筹划有望系统地强化预算-政策间联结,由此从根本上消除了基数法与零基预算的缺陷与局限性。本文最后针对中国预算报告的内容和问题,提出筹划预算变量、宏观经济变量和政策变量一致性的改革路径。Baseline projections are the premise and guarantee to form and strengthen the budget-policy link,but related researches and reforms are far from sufficient.In practice,the delinking between budget and policy is obvious in China,which is manifested as budget deviating from national strategic focus and policy priorities,resulting in serious consequences,which not only wastes the budget funds,but also weakens the policy sustainability.This paper devotes to demonstrate that the delinking between budget and policy caused by various reasons,such as base approach and statutory expenditure,can be best solved only by applying baseline projections.With the in-depth reform of the budget reports,the effect will be more significant.This paper also demonstrates that the zero-based budget advocated by the mainstream view has limited effect and cannot solve the problem of budget-policy delinking.By clearly distinguishing between policy change and non-policy change,then identifying the fiscal impact of these two changes,baseline projections can systematically strengthen the budget-policy link.Thus,the defects and limitations of base approach and zero-based budget are fundamentally eliminated.Finally,from the perspective of the contents and problems of China s budget reports,this paper puts forward reform suggestions on projecting the consistency between budget variables,macroeconomic variables and policy variables.

关 键 词：预算-政策联结 基线筹划 政策变化 非政策变化 预算报告 

分 类 号：F812.3[经济管理—财政学]