一种新的地震危险性表达方法研究  

A new method for expressing seismic hazards

作　　者：张萌[1] 潘华[1] Zhang Meng;Pan Hua(Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《地震学报》2022年第6期1099-1110,共12页Acta Seismologica Sinica

基　　金：中国地震局地球物理研究所基本科研业务费专项(DQJB22Z03);中国地震局地球物理研究所自主立项项目(JY2022Z53)联合资助.

摘　　要：为了寻找一种精度较高、超越概率范围较广并且便于应用的方式来表达地震危险性,本文回顾了当前常用的几种地震危险性表达方法,提出基于一个新函数来拟合地震危险性曲线的“特征系数法”,并使用《中国地震动参数区划图》(GB 18306—2015)的基础数据对该函数的拟合效果进行了验证。结果表明,新函数与地震危险性曲线拟合良好,与极值函数相比有明显的提升,能够充分地表达一个场点的地震危险性。另外,本文结果还显示该函数中表征曲线形状的参数k(文中称为特征系数)与场点面临的地震环境有关,k值较低的场点危险性贡献基本来自近场,而k值较高的场点中远距离的贡献是不能忽视的。The aim is to find a way to express seismic hazards with high accuracy,a wide range of exceedance probabilities and convenient application. We reviewed several commonly used methods for seismic hazards expression,and the "characteristic coefficient method" based on a new function to fit the seismic hazard curve is proposed,and the effect of this function was also verified by using the base data of the Seismic Parameter Zoning Map of China(GB 18306-2015). The results show that the new function could effectively fit the seismic hazard curve,with a significant improvement compared to the extreme value function,and can adequately express the seismic hazards of a site. In addition,it is found that the parameter k(referred to as the characteristic coefficient in the paper),which characterizes the shape of the curve in this function,is related to the seismic environment faced by the site,that is,the hazard contribution for sites with low values of k essentially came from the near field,while the contribution for sites with high values of k from long distances could not be ignored.

关 键 词：地震危险性 特征系数 曲线拟合 地震环境 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]