1971-2015年鄂西山地极端气温变化特征分析  

Characteristics of extreme temperature changes in Western Hubei mountains from 1971 to 2015

作　　者：师银芳[1] 熊劲锟 邢捷 SHI Yinfang;XIONG Jinkun;XING Jie(College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2022年第6期10-17,共8页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42161072);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(20JR10RA094);甘肃省高等学校创新基金项目(2020A-017);西北师范大学青年教师骨干项目(NWNU-LKQN2022-12)。

摘　　要：为深入了解全球气候变暖背景下鄂西山地极端气温事件的变化规律与特征,基于1971-2015年恩施、巴东、来凤、房县4个气象台站的逐日数据,采用线性回归、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall检验和小波分析方法,探讨分析了鄂西地区极端气温的时空变化特征。结果表明:1971-2015年鄂西山地极端最低气温、极端最高气温和高温日数均呈上升趋势,其中极端最低气温的升幅最大,霜冻日数呈减少趋势;极端冷事件数逐年减少,极端热事件数逐年增多,突变年份分别为1996和2007年。鄂西山地极端气温事件具有5、18 a等周期的周期性变化特征,极端气温事件发生频率具有明显交替的变化特征。研究结果能够对鄂西地区防灾减灾,构建极端气温气象灾害的综合防范机制提供参考依据。In order to have a deep understanding of the changing features of extreme temperature events under the influence of global warming in Western Hubei mountains,the variation characteristics of the extreme temperature events in Western Hubei mountains were analyzed and discussed based on the daily data of four meteorological stations in Enshi,Badong,Laifeng and Fangxian from 1971 to 2015,using methods of linear regression,moving average,Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet.The results showed that the extreme minimum temperature,extreme maximum temperature and the number of high temperature days all showed an increasing trend in the past 45 years,among which,the extreme minimum temperature increased the most;whereas the number of frost days showed a decreasing trend.The number of extreme cold events decreased during the past 45 years,but the number of extreme hot events increased,with 1996 and 2007 as the abrupt change years,respectively.The extreme temperature events had the characteristics of periodic change of 5 and 18 a and so on,and the events changed alternatively.The research results can provide a reference for disaster prevention and mitigation and the formulation of a comprehensive mechanism for the prevention of extreme temperature meteorological disasters in western Hubei.

关 键 词：极端气温 趋势分析 M-K突变检验 小波分析 鄂西山地 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]