1980-2018年曹娥江中上游径流变化特征及归因分析  

Characteristics and attribution analysis of runoff changes in the middle and upper reaches of Cao’e River from 1980 to 2018

作　　者：刘洋[1,2] 韩晓旭 李丽娟 LIU Yang;HAN Xiaoxu;LI Lijuan(Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;China Urban Construction Design&Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100120,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049 [3]中国城市建设研究院有限公司,北京100120

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2022年第6期53-61,共9页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(XDA23020101)。

摘　　要：水资源对人类社会发展至关重要,掌握河川径流变化规律是实现水资源可持续利用的基础。当前关于径流变化的研究涉及径流年际变化规律、径流年内分配特征、径流变化的归因分析3个方面。利用1980-2018年嵊州站、黄泽站和花山站3个水文站的月径流数据,结合多种研究方法对曹娥江中上游的径流量变化进行了研究。结果表明:曹娥江中上游年平均径流量呈减小趋势,其中黄泽站变动最大,其次为花山站,嵊州站年平均径流量变动最小;春季各站平均径流量均呈显著减小趋势,冬季黄泽站平均径流量呈显著增大趋势;嵊州站和花山站年平均径流量在2003年发生突变,黄泽站没有明显突变点;不同时期径流量年内分配过程线均呈“三峰”形态,峰值分别出现在3-4月、6月和8-9月,峰值表现为“低-高-低”的特征;对于嵊州站和花山站,人类活动为研究期径流量减少的主要原因,而降雨因素是造成黄泽站径流量减少的主要原因。Water resources are of vital importance to the development of human society.Mastering the rule of river runoff changes is the basis for achieving sustainable use of water resources.The current research on runoff changes involves three aspects,namely,the interannual change of runoff,the annual distribution characteristics of runoff,and the attribution analysis of runoff changes.Based on the monthly runoff data of Shengzhou Station(SZ),Huangze Station(HZ)and Huashan Station(HS)from 1980 to 2018,the runoff changes in the middle and upper reaches of the Cao’e River are investigated using a variety of research methods.The results show that the annual average runoff showed a downward trend,which changed the greatest at HZ,followed by HS and SZ.The average runoff of all three stations also changed seasonally,which showed a significant downward trend in spring,but that of HZ showed a significant upward trend in winter.Both SZ and HS experienced an abrupt change in annual average runoff in 2003,whereas HZ had no obvious abrupt change.The distribution process curve of runoff in different periods showed a pattern of“three peaks”with the characteristics of“low-high-low”,which happened in March to April,June and August to September,respectively.For SZ and HS,human activities were the main reason for the reduction of runoff during the change period,whereas the reduction of rainfall was responsible for that for HS.

关 键 词：年径流变化 径流年内分配 归因分析 曹娥江 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]