基于FAHP的洪水中人员避难逃生路线优选决策研究  

Investigations into Selecting Optimal Refuge and Escape Routes Based on FAHP

作　　者：果鹏 夏军强[2] 周美蓉[2] GUO Peng;XIA Junqiang;ZHOU Meirong(Hubei Key Laboratory of Basin Water Security,Changjiang Survey,Planning,Design and Research Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430010,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司流域水安全保障湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430010 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《人民黄河》2022年第12期47-52,共6页Yellow River

基　　金：湖北省重点研发计划项目(2020BCA083);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51725902,51579186);湖南省水利科技项目(XSKJ2021000-11)。

摘　　要：面对生产堤溃堤等引发的漫滩洪水,制定行之有效的避难逃生路线,有利于减少伤亡人数。将基于最短路线规划的静态寻优方法及考虑滩区洪水演进过程与群众避难逃生过程的动态寻优方法相结合,系统地研究滩区洪水中群众避难逃生路线优选算法。根据滩区的交通网络情况,采用Dijkstra算法开展基于最短路线规划的静态寻优;基于洪水中人体失稳的动力学机制,评估滩区群众的洪水风险等级;考虑洪水中群众的步行逃生速度,建立避难逃生历时的路权函数;采用二维水沙动力学模块计算滩区洪水的演进过程,同步模拟滩区群众的动态迁移过程,采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)综合考虑不同场次洪水条件,构建滩区洪水中群众避难逃生路线优选的递阶层次结构模型,以开展滩区群众避难逃生方案的优选决策。将算法应用于黄河下游兰考东明滩区,考虑2003年洪水和“1958年”型洪水,确定人员避难逃生的最优路线。An algorithm of selecting optimal refuge and escape routes in floodplain areas was proposed.The influence factors including the shortest route,flood risk and escape speed for flooded people were considered in the algorithm.The determination methods of optimal refuge and escape routes under the conditions of a specific flood event and different flood events were proposed.The Dijkstra algorithm was adopted to derive the shortest routes.The two⁃dimensional hydro⁃sediment⁃morphodynamic module was used to simulate flood routing processes.At the same times,the flood risk for human body was evaluated by using mechanical instability formula,and evacuation time was calculated by con⁃sidering escape speed under different flow conditions.Thus,flood routing processes and evacuation movements could be synchronously simu⁃lated.The final escape moment was selected as the key factor of selecting optimal refuge and escape routes in a single flood routing process.Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP)was used to determine optimal refuge and escape routes under the condition of different flood e⁃vents.

关 键 词：洪水 人体失稳 逃生速度 模糊层次分析法 避难逃生路线 优选决策 

分 类 号：TV122.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]