印度退出RCEP谈判的原因与影响因素  

Reasons and Influencing Factors of India’s Withdrawal from RCEP Negotiation

作　　者：张家栋[1,2] 何雪倩 Zhang Jiadong;He Xueqian

机构地区：[1]复旦大学美国研究中心 [2]复旦大学南亚研究中心 [3]复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院 [4]云南大学国际关系研究院/“一带一路”研究院

出　　处：《印度洋经济体研究》2022年第6期17-33,151,152,共19页Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“印度经济社会发展与对外政策研究”(项目批准号:19JZD055)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：印度一直是区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)谈判过程中三心二意的谈判方,心态和动机非常复杂。一方面,印度担心一个没有印度的RCEP会使其被孤立于亚太经济一体化进程之外,从而失去一些经济发展的机会;另一方面,印度又担心加入RCEP会损害自己的制造业发展计划并扩大贸易赤字。因此,印度在RCEP谈判过程中一直是参与、塑造和拖延三大目标并重。最终,RCEP其他谈判方不能再忍受印度的拖延战略,印度最终退出RCEP谈判进程。从国际因素来看,在全球化面临阻力和印度制造业难以振兴的前景之下,印度认为可以从RCEP中获得的远期潜在收益并不确定,但近期潜在成本却很高;从国内因素来讲,受选票政治、印度教民族主义以及印度对制造业和经济独立追求的影响,印度产生了明显的贸易保护主义倾向。India has always been a half-hearted negotiator in the negotiation process of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP), with very complicated mentality and motivations. On the one hand, India is worried that RCEP without India will isolate itself from the Asia-Pacific economic integration process, thus losing some opportunities for economic development;on the other hand, India is worried that joining RCEP will damage its own manufacturing development plan and widen the trade deficit. Therefore, in the process of RCEP negotiations, India has always paid equal attention to the three major goals of participation, shaping and delaying. In the end, other RCEP negotiators could no longer tolerate India’s delaying strategy, and India finally withdrew from the RCEP negotiation process. Seeing from international factors, the globalization is facing resistance and given the difficulty to revitalize Indian manufacturing industry, India believes that the long-term potential benefits that can be obtained from RCEP are uncertain, but the potential costs in the near future are very high;seeing from domestic factors, influenced by ballot politics,Hindu nationalism, and India’s pursuit of manufacturing and economic independence,India has a clear tendency towards trade protectionism.

关 键 词：印度 RCEP 东盟 经济民族主义 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易] F753.51[经济管理—产业经济]