印度军政关系如何影响对外军事行为?  

How India’s Civi-Military Relations Affect Its Interstate War Behavior?

作　　者：魏涵 Wei Han

机构地区：[1]南京大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《印度洋经济体研究》2022年第6期55-83,153,154,共31页Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review

基　　金：2022年江苏省“双创博士”资助项目(项目编号:JSSCBS20220054)、2023年南京大学亚洲研究项目的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：传统观点认为军人更加倾向于使用武力解决国际争端,而另有研究认为文官更加好战。受复杂的国内国际情势影响,很难用一个普遍性的答案解决上述争论。跳脱出以往对军政关系的“二分法”分类,根据文官控制实现的主要路径和强弱程度,军政关系可分为全面型强文官控制、外部型弱文官控制、外部型强文官控制和内部型强文官控制。这四种类型分别主导了1961年中印边境武装冲突、1965年印巴战争、1971年印巴战争和1999年卡吉尔战争。军政关系主要影响了印度对外战争的开战决策、作战指挥和停战决策。通过过程追踪发现:文官控制越强,印度对外开战的倾向越强;内部型文官控制的作战指挥效果优于外部型文官控制,弱文官控制的作战指挥效果优于强文官控制,总体由文官控制强度决定;停战倾向也和军政关系类型存在联系,但具体影响需要视不同情形而定。本文从军政关系角度解释印度对外战争行为的国内政治逻辑,试图通过历史经验找寻与印度和平相处之道。Conventional wisdom holds that military personnel are more inclined to use force to settle international disputes, while other studies suggest that civilians are more belligerent. Complicated domestic and international circumstances make it difficult to find a universal answer to this debate. Based on the case of India’s interstate wars,this study tries to understand the role of civil-military relations on the country’s interstate war behavior. Breaking away from the previous dichotomous classification, the civil-military relations can be divided into comprehensive strong civilian control, externally weak civilian control, externally strong civilian control and internally strong civilian control according to the measures and strength of civilian control. These four types of civil-military relations dominated the 1961 Sino-Indian border armed conflict, 1965Indo-Pakistan War, 1971 Indo-Pakistan War and 1999 Kargil War respectively. The civil-military relations mainly affect India’s decision of launching, operating and stopping war. Through tracing the process, it is found that the stronger the civilian control is, the stronger India’s tendency of fighting an interstate war is. The effect of internally civilian control is better than that of externally civilian control in the operation of a war,when the effect of weak civilian control is better than that of strong civilian control,which is generally determined by the intensity of civilian control. The armistice is also related to the civil-military relations, but the specific influence depends on different situations. This paper explains the domestic political logic of India’s war behavior from the perspective of civil-military relations and tries to find a way to live peacefully with India through historical experience.

关 键 词：军政关系 文官控制 印巴战争 中印边境冲突 

分 类 号：E351[军事—军事理论] D735.1[政治法律—政治学]