边境基建、安全思维与莫迪政府的边境挑衅行为  

Border Infrastructure,Security Thinking and Border Provocations of Modi Government

作　　者：贺先青 He Xianqing

机构地区：[1]南京大学中国南海研究协同创新中心、国际关系研究院 [2]中国南海研究院海上丝绸之路研究所

出　　处：《印度洋经济体研究》2022年第6期107-129,155,共24页Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review

摘　　要：莫迪政府时期,中印两国在边境地区频繁爆发对峙事件,对峙强度和时间均明显增加。既有研究从两国互信程度、源自历史的安全观念等多种角度分析了中印爆发对峙事件的原因,但这些分析存在着基于价值理性判断的多元逻辑难以调和、“常量”解释“变量”等问题,对莫迪政府时期中印边境对峙频发以及强度增大的原因缺乏进一步的解释力。基于中印经略边境的事实以及两国边境地区的特殊地理气候条件,本文认为,行为的能力和动力是莫迪政府在边境地区采取行动的必要条件,完善的基础设施是国家在边境采取行动的重要能力支撑,而国家秉持的“安全思维”则为国家采取行动提供了重要的动力支撑。梳理2014年莫迪就任印度总理以来发生的三次中印边境冲突对峙过程发现,冲突地点均位于印度具有一定基础设施建设基础和优势的地区。此外,莫迪政府具有较强的进攻性安全思维,谋求改变边界现状的动力较强。印度莫迪政府推动边境基础设施建设提供的能力与其进攻性安全思维下谋求改变现状的动力,使其在特定地点和时间频繁、高强度地发起挑衅。During the Modi government, confrontation broke out frequently between China and India in the border area, and the intensity and duration of the confrontation increased significantly. Existing studies have analyzed the reasons of the outbreak of confrontation between China and India from multiple perspectives such as the degree of mutual trust between the two countries and the security concept derived from history, but there are problems such as the difficulty to reconcile multiple logics based on value-based rational judgments, and difficulty of “constants” explaining “variables”. Therefore, there is no further explanation for the reasons of the frequent and intensified Sino-Indian border confrontation during the Modi government. Based on the border policies of both China and India, and the special geographical and climatic conditions of the border areas, this paper believes that the capability and motivation of behavior are the necessary conditions for the Modi government to take actions in the border areas, and the perfect infrastructure is the important capability support of the country’s actions in the border areas, and the country’s “security thinking” provides important motivational support for the country to take action. Based on the analysis of process of three Sino-Indian border conflicts and confrontations since Modi took office as Prime Minister of India in 2014, it was found that the conflicts were all located in areas where India has a certain foundation and advantages in infrastructure construction. In addition,the Modi government has a strong offensive security thinking and has a strong motivation to seek to change the status quo of the border. Modi government’s ability to promote the construction border infrastructure and its motivation to change the status quo under its offensive security thinking have led to frequent and high-intensity provocations at specific locations and times.

关 键 词：边境基础设施 安全思维 莫迪政府 中印边界 中印关系 

分 类 号：D822.335.1[政治法律—政治学]