经常账户变动对实际有效汇率的非对称影响及潜在渠道探析  

Asymmetric Effects of Current Account Fluctuations on Real Effective Exchange Rates and Its Potential Channels

作　　者：张明[1] 刘瑶 ZHANG Ming;LIU Yao(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院金融研究所 [2]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,100006

出　　处：《经济学（季刊）》2022年第5期1511-1532,共22页China Economic Quarterly

基　　金：中国社会科学院创新工程项目“全球与中国金融市场的发展趋势与互联互通研究”;中国社会科学院财经战略研究院2022青年基金项目“全球经常账户调整的潜在经济影响探析”的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：本文参考Obstfeld and Rogoff(2005)三国模型,实证检验了经常账户调整对一国实际有效汇率走向的影响。研究表明:第一,经常账户顺差增加或逆差缩减驱动经济体实际有效汇率升值;第二,经常账户调整对一国实际有效汇率的影响具有国别间的非对称性与时变效应;第三,制造业规模的大小、估值效应同样影响经常账户对实际有效汇率的传导。本文最重要的政策建议是,各国需要密切关注经常账户调整对实际有效汇率变动构成的冲击,避免两者联动造成贸易条件的恶化。Based on the three-country model of OR(2005),combined with EBA REER method,this study investigates the current account adjustments on a country’s REER.The study demonstrates that:First,both the increase of surplus and reduction of deficit drive REER appreciation in developing countries,but pose non-significant effect on developed countries.Second,the effect of current account adjustment on a country’s real effective exchange rate has asymmetric and time-varying effects among countries.Third,the manufacturing scale and valuation effects also influence the transmission of the current account to the real effective exchange rate.The main suggestion of this paper is that countries need to pay close attention to the impact of current account adjustments on real effective exchange rate movements,and avoid the deterioration of terms of trade caused by linkages of both items.

关 键 词：经常账户调整 实际有效汇率 估值效应 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]