价格杠杆能否持续主导能源转型?——来自亚太地区农业深加工产业的证据  

Could Price Leverage Continuously Navigate Energy Transition?Evidence from Asia-Pacific Agricultural Deep Processing Industry

作　　者：赵甜 沈曦 Zhao Tian;Shen Xi

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学财经系,济南250031 [2]美国东北大学经济系,波士顿02115

出　　处：《亚太经济》2022年第5期51-60,共10页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：山东自然科学基金面上项目“隐含能视角下外贸对山东省能耗影响与贸易结构优化研究”(ZR2021MG039)。

摘　　要：应用修正的多阶段AIDS模型讨论企业能源结构转型的驱动因素,并使用亚太地区农业深加工产业500余家企业40年的能源消费样本,计算各类能源在需求侧的价格弹性,量化分析影响能源转型的主要因素及价格门槛。研究结果表明:价格杠杆对新能源消费决策的影响集中在产业发展的中短期,用能企业的长期决策更多依赖当地能源禀赋、政策环境配套性以及能源可靠性等非价格因素;相比油气替代煤炭的过程,新能源面临更高的价格门槛,这意味着即便实现去补贴以后,供能稳定性和市场配套性等方面的劣势依然制约新能源在更大范围内对传统能源进行替代;新能源消费对碳税的敏感性远高于其他能源,相比鼓励单纯地行业降本,更需要结合碳排放市场机制,同时新能源在输配网络和供能稳定性等非价格因素层面的深度提升才是持续推进能源转型的关键。This paper applied the modified multi-stage AIDS model to discuss the driving force on the transformation of enterprise energy structure, and used the energy consumption samples of more than 500 enterprises in the Asia Pacific agricultural deep processing industry for 40 years to calculate the price elasticity of all kinds of energy on the demand side, and analyze the main factors affecting the energy structure and the price threshold. It is found that,(1)The impact of price leverage on new energy consumption decision-making is only limited to the medium and short term of industrial development, and the decision-making of energy consuming enterprises in the long term depends more on non-price factors such as local energy endowment, policy environment matching and energy reliability.(2)Compared with the process of oil and gas replacing coal, renewable new energy faces a higher price threshold and is much more sensitive to carbon tax than other energy sources. This means that even after the desubsidy is realized, the disadvantages in terms of energy supply stability and market compatibility still restrict new energy from replacing traditional energy in a wider range.(3)The sensitivity of new energy consumption to carbon tax is much higher than that of other energy sources. Compared with encouraging simple industry cost reduction, it is more necessary to combine the carbon emission market mechanism and strengthen the in-depth improvement of new energy at the level of non-price factors such as transmission and distribution network and energy supply stability.

关 键 词：价格杠杆 能源转型 阶段化AIDS模型 农业深加工产业 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F326