香港地区能源消费碳排放的演变趋势及其影响因素  

Examining the Dynamics and Determinants of Energy-related Carbon Emission in Mega City:A Case Study of Hong Kong SAR,China

作　　者：林晓洁 王长建 汪菲 陈静 廖开怀 罗皓 卢敏仪 Lin Xiaojie;Wang Changjian;Wang Fei;Chen Jing;Liao Kaihuai;Luo Hao;Lu Minyi(Key Lab of Guangdong for Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System/Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application/Guangzhou Institute of Geography/Guangdong Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510070,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Guangzhou),Guangzhou 511458,China;School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510090,China;School of Resources and the Urban Planning,Guangzhou Xinhua University,Guangzhou 510520,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省科学院广州地理研究所/广东省地理空间信息技术与应用公共实验室/广东省遥感与地理信息系统应用重点实验室,广东广州510070 [2]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(广州),广东广州511458 [3]广东工业大学建筑与城市规划学院,广东广州510090 [4]广州新华学院资源与城乡规划学院,广东广州510520

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2022年第21期231-238,共8页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(广州)人才团队引进重大专项项目“粤港澳大湾区海岸带生态环境大数据与分析”(GML2019ZD0301);广东省科学院建设国内一流研究机构行动专项资金项目“粤港澳大湾区陆地生态安全与绿色可持续发展”(2020GDASYL-20200301003);“粤港澳大湾区人地关系机制以及环境适应能力提升策略研究”(2020GDASYL-20200102002)。

摘　　要：采用对数平均迪氏分解法(LMDI),对1983—2018年香港地区CO_(2)排放的演变趋势及影响因素进行系统解析,认为:(1)香港地区能源消费结构以煤炭和石油为主,在能源价格因素的影响下,不同阶段能源消费结构变化明显,从内地进口电力对其能源消费结构优化具有促进作用;(2)经济增长和人口集聚是导致能源消费碳排放增长的主要因素,由于近年来经济发展缺乏新动能,经济增长对碳排放的助推作用逐渐减弱;(3)能源消费强度、能源消费结构和能源替代效应是遏制碳排放的主要影响因素,其中能源消费强度的碳减排作用最为显著。香港地区控制碳排放应继续实施强有力的能源消费总量和碳排放总量控制策略,重视未来能源价格波动的潜在影响,保持与珠三角以电力进口为主的跨境能源合作,拓宽天然气的国际和国内供应渠道。In this study,the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)model based on the Kaya identity was adopted to analyze the influencing factors of energy-related carbon emissions in Hong Kong region from 1983 to 2018.The results show that:(1)Hong Kong's region energy consumption is dominated by coal and oil.Under the influence of energy prices,energy consumption structure at different stages is different.Imports of electricity from the mainland have optimized Hong Kong's region energy consumption structure.(2)Economic growth and population size are two dominant contributors influencing the growth of carbon emissions.(3)Energy consumption intensity,energy consumption structure and energy substitution effect play significant effects on mitigating carbon emissions.Energy consumption intensity is the most important factor to curb carbon emissions.More attention should be paid to the potential impact of energy price fluctuations in the future.More efforts should be made to maintain cross-border energy cooperation,namely,electricity imports with the Pearl River Delta.In addition,supply channels based on international and domestic markets should also be expanded.

关 键 词：能源消费碳排放 能源消费结构 能源消费强度 能源价格 LMDI 香港地区 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济] F113.3