基于MaxEnt模型预测玉米矮花叶病毒的潜在适生区  

Potential geographical distribution prediction of maize dwarf mosaic virus based on MaxEnt model

作　　者：刘静远 于翠 黄昱萌 田沂民 秦誉嘉[2] 朱雅君 滕凯 崔金路 王寅鹏 林松 Liu Jingyuan;Yu Cui;Huang Yumeng;Tian Yimin;Qin Yujia;Zhu Yajun;Teng Kai;Cui Jinlu;Wang Yinpeng;Lin Song(Center for Animal,Plant and Food Inspection and Quarantine of Shanghai Customs District,Shanghai 200135,China;Department of Plant Biosecurity,College of Plant Protection,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;Shanghai Customs District,Shanghai 200135,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海关动植物与食品检验检疫技术中心,上海200135 [2]中国农业大学植物生物安全系,北京100193 [3]上海海关,上海200135

出　　处：《植物保护学报》2022年第5期1383-1391,共9页Journal of Plant Protection

基　　金：海关总署科研项目-进境粮谷携带检疫性病毒检测方法评价及传播风险研究,长三角科技合作项目(19395810100)。

摘　　要：为明确玉米矮花叶病毒(maize dwarf mosaic virus,MDMV)在未来气候条件下在全球以及我国的潜在适生区,通过整理现有文献记载的MDMV发生分布数据,运用MaxEnt模型与ArcGIS10.2软件预测MDMV在历史和未来2个时间区段不同气候条件下(低胁迫情景SSP126和高胁迫情景SSP585)的潜在地理分布。结果显示,所建MaxEnt模型的受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)值为0.911,表明预测结果可靠性高。MDMV的潜在分布受最冷月最低温(仅此变量时贡献率最高,为67.9%)和年降水量(除此变量时贡献率最低,为2.1%)的影响最大。历史气候条件下,MDMV在北美洲、南美洲南部、欧洲、非洲南部及北部、中亚以及大洋洲南部广泛适生;在我国除东北北部、内蒙古自治区东北部、新疆维吾尔自治区南部、西藏自治区北部、四川省东部、广西壮族自治区、广东省和海南省以外的大部分地区适生;未来气候条件下,MDMV在世界范围内的分布呈现北半球向北、南半球向南的变化趋向,在我国的分布则呈现向北收缩趋势。Based on current distribution of maize dwarf mosaic virus(MDMV), the maximum entropy(MaxEnt) model and ArcGIS 10.2 software were used to predict its potential global distribution under current and future climatic conditions(SSP126 and SSP585). The results showed that the area under curve(AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) of MaxEnt model was 0.911, which showed high reliability of prediction results. The potential distribution of MDMV was related to minimum temperature of the coldest month(the highest contribution rate was 67.9% with only variable) and annual precipitation(the lowest contribution rate was 2.1% without the variable). Under historical climatic conditions, MDMV was predicted widely suitable in North America, southern South America, Europe,southern and northern Africa, Central Asia and southern Oceania;and suitable in most areas of China except north of northeastern China, northeastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, southern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, northern Tibet Autonomous Region, eastern Sichuan Province,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Guangdong Province and Hainan Province. Under the future climate scenario, the distribution of MDMV in the world would show a trend of moving north in the northern hemisphere and moving south in the southern hemisphere, and its distribution in China would shrink to the north.

关 键 词：玉米矮花叶病毒 MaxEnt模型 气候变化 潜在地理分布 

分 类 号：S435.131[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]