碳约束机制下能源转型路径和宏观影响评估——以粤港澳大湾区为例  

Energy Transformation Path and Macro Impact Assessment Under Carbon Constraint Mechanism:Taking the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as an Example

作　　者：任松彦[1,2,3] 汪鹏 林泽伟[1,2,3] 张聪 赵黛青 Ren Songyan;Wang Peng;Lin Zewei;Zhang Cong;Zhao Daiqing(Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510640,China;Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510640,China;University of Chinese Acadmy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Engineering Science,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230027,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院广州能源研究所,广东广州510640 [2]中国科学院可再生能源重点实验室,广东广州510640 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [4]中国科学技术大学工程科学学院,安徽合肥230027

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2022年第20期219-226,共8页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于经济-技术-空间集成能源模型研究”(71603248);广东省科技计划项目“工业园区智慧能源管理系统关键技术研究”(2017A050501060)。

摘　　要：为实现粤港澳大湾区在碳强度控制目标下经济社会发展和碳减排任务的双赢,通过构建能源经济环境评估模型,设计能源转型的基准情景、转型情景和深度转型情景,量化评估在碳目标约束和驱动下粤港澳大湾区能源转型路径传导效应的有效性。结果显示,粤港澳大湾区碳排放达峰需要碳约束和能源转型共同发力。其中,转型情景和深度转型情景下,不同程度的碳约束和能源转型将推动粤港澳大湾区分别于2025年和2022年实现碳排放达峰;到2035年,相比基准情景,转型情景下的碳成本和能源结构转型促进地区生产总值增长0.68%,深度转型情景下则造成0.34%的地区生产总值损失。此外,合理设置碳总量控制目标有利于引导用能部门的结构替代,反过来促进经济增长、产业结构低碳转型和就业人数提高,同时促进实现节能减碳目标。In order to achieve a win-win situation for the economic and social development and carbon emission reduction tasks of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA)under the carbon intensity control target,benchmark scenario,transition scenario and deep transition scenario of energy transformation are designed by building an energy economic environment assessment model,and the effectiveness of transmission effect of energy transformation path of GBA under constraint and drive of the carbon target is quantitatively assessed.The results show that the peak carbon emissions in GBA require the joint efforts of carbon constraints and energy transformation.Among them,under the transformation scenario and the deep transformation scenario,different degrees of carbon constraints and energy transformation will promote GBA to achieve peak carbon emissions in 2025 and 2022 respectively;by 2035,compared with the baseline scenario,the carbon cost and energy structure transformation under the transformation scenario will promote GDP growth of 0.68%,while the deep transformation scenario will cause GDP loss of 0.34%.In addition,the reasonable setting of the total carbon control target is conducive to guiding the structural substitution of the energy sector,which in turn promotes economic growth,low-carbon transformation of the industrial structure and employment,while promoting the realization of the goal of energy conservation and carbon reduction.

关 键 词：碳约束 碳达峰 碳减排 能源转型 粤港澳大湾区 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] G301[文化科学]