机器人冲击、资本体现式技术进步与制造业碳减排——理论分析及中国的经验证据  

Robot Shock, Capital-Embodied Technological Progress and Carbon Reduction of Manufacturing Sector——Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence from China

作　　者：蒋为[1] 龚思豪 李锡涛 JIANG Wei;GONG Si-hao;LI Xi-tao(School of International Business,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学国际商学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2022年第10期24-42,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“地区间产业政策竞争、市场分割与资源空间误置”(批准号71973108);四川省科技厅软科学研究项目“四川融入国内大循环加快促进国内国际双循环研究”(批准号2021JDR0060)。

摘　　要：机器人资本的动态深化已成为制造业智能化转型的内在要求,其带来的资本体现式技术进步为中国制造业碳减排提供了关键驱动。本文从理论、实证、分解三个层面考察机器人冲击的碳减排效应。首先,将机器人与碳排放引入异质性产品的垄断竞争模型中,构建了机器人应用影响碳排放的理论基础,分析了机器人通过资本体现式技术进步影响碳排放的规模增排效应与技术减排效应。其次,采用2003—2016年中国跨地区面板数据构建计量模型检验了机器人冲击对制造业碳排放的影响。实证结果表明:机器人冲击显著降低了中国制造业碳排放,机器人冲击每提高1%将造成制造业碳排放降低0.96%。最后,将机器人要素引入对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)分解框架,对中国制造业碳排放动态演变的驱动因素进行分解。分解结果显示:总体看,机器人的技术减排效应平均高于规模增排效应,碳减排效应日趋显著;细分效应看,机器人投入效应、资本自动化效应表现出显著的增排贡献,而劳动力—机器人要素结构效应和机器人—能源要素结构效应具有明显的减排贡献;跨时期看,相较于“十一五”时期,“十二五”时期机器人技术减排效应进一步深化,为中国制造业碳减排提供了关键支撑;跨行业看,高耗能行业中机器人的技术减排效应远高于低耗能行业,具有更明显的碳减排贡献。Recently,in order to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,some areas have blindly restricted production and shut down firms,without properly understanding the systematic and scientific nature of carbon reduction. Therefore,how to promote the synergy between economic development and carbon reduction,has become a critical issue for the Chinese government to address.As a new type of capital with automatic properties,robots drive economic growth through improving total factor productivity. Meanwhile,dynamic accumulation of robot capital also contributes to capitalembodied technological progress which is regarded as a major driver of carbon reduction. However,existing studies have no empirical evidence on the carbon reduction effect of robots from the perspective of capital-embodied technological progress,and lack theoretical analytical framework on the relationship between robots and carbon reduction. This study can not only fill the research gap theoretically and empirically,but also provides policy insights for achieving synergy between economic growth and carbon reduction.To examine the impact of robots on carbon reduction in the manufacturing industry,our study firstly constructs a theoretical framework from the perspective of capital-embodied technological progress,implying that the carbon reduction effect relies on the relative levels of the scale effect and the technical effect. Secondly,we empirically examine the impact of robot shock on carbon emissions using cross-regional panel data from 2003 to 2016,and conduct a series of robustness tests. Finally,employing the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)method,we investigate the determinants and internal mechanisms of carbon emissions in different contexts.The empirical results show that robot shock significantly reduces carbon emissions. In addition,The LMDI decomposition mainly draws the following conclusion. Firstly,the technical effect of robot shock is greater than the scale effect,and the total carbon reduction effect is becoming increasingl

关 键 词：机器人冲击 资本体现式技术进步 碳减排 规模效应 技术效应 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]