“十四五”我国港口货物吞吐量结构化预测  

Structural forecast of cargo throughput in China s ports during 14th Five-Year Plan period

作　　者：刘长俭[1,2] 高天航 陈正勇 吴宏宇 王蕊 李宜军[1,2] 徐杏 魏雪莲[1,2] LIU Chang-jian;GAO Tian-hang;CHEN Zheng-yong;WU Hong-yu;WANG Rui;LI Yi-jun;XU Xing;WEI Xue-lian(Transport Planning and Research Institute,Ministry of Transport,Beijing 100028,China;Laboratory for Traffic&Transport Planning Digitalization,Beijing 100028,China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部规划研究院,北京100028 [2]综合交通规划数字化实验室,北京100028

出　　处：《水运工程》2022年第12期1-6,共6页Port & Waterway Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA029)。

摘　　要：为更好分析港口运输需求发展趋势,将港口吞吐量影响因素进行结构拆解,建立吞吐量与国内生产总值、工业增加值、一二三产业增加值、投资、消费、外贸额的关系方程。同时,将吞吐量拆分为主要货类,建立煤炭吞吐量与火电发电量、原油吞吐量与原油加工量、铁矿石吞吐量与生铁产量、集装箱吞吐量与第二产业增加值等关系方程。组合应用回归分析、弹性系数等预测模型,预测2025年我国港口货物吞吐量、煤炭、原油、铁矿石和集装箱吞吐量分别为172亿、29亿、8.3亿、22亿t和3.2亿TEU。预测结论为全国水运“十四五”发展规划等提供参考。To better analyze the development trend of port transportation demand,this paper structurally decomposes the influencing factors of port throughput and establishes the relationship equations between throughput and gross domestic product(GDP),industrial added value,added value of primary,secondary,and tertiary industries,investment,consumption,and foreign trade volume.Meanwhile,the throughput is subdivided into main cargo categories,and the relationship equations between coal throughput and thermal power generation,crude oil throughput and processing amount of crude oil,iron ore throughput and pig iron output,container throughput and added value of the secondary industry are established.With the combination of prediction models such as regression analysis and elasticity coefficients,this paper predicts that the cargo throughput,as well as coal,crude oil,iron ore,and container throughput of China s ports will be 17.2 billion tons,2.9 billion tons,0.83 billion tons,2.2 billion tons,and 0.32 billion TEU,respectively,in 2025.The prediction result provides a reference for the development plan of national waterway transport during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

关 键 词：港口 吞吐量 预测 结构化 分货类 

分 类 号：U651[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]