内河典型单级单线船闸待闸时间预测模型及优化调度策略  

Waiting time prediction model and optimal dispatching strategy of typical single-stage single-line ship locks in inland rivers

作　　者：杨港 邓健[1,2,3] 刘少勇 曾笑涵 YANG Gang;DENG Jian;LIU Shao-yong;ZENG Xiao-han(School of Navigation,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Inland Shipping Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety,Wuhan 430063,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学航运学院,湖北武汉430063 [2]内河航运技术湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430063 [3]国家水运安全工程研究中心,湖北武汉430063

出　　处：《水运工程》2022年第12期196-203,共8页Port & Waterway Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0400200)。

摘　　要：为了提高内河船闸调度水平、缓解船闸堵航情况,以我国内河水运梯级开发中最为广泛的单级单线船闸为研究对象,运用Arena仿真平台构建了船闸通航仿真模型,以汉江兴隆船闸为例,对单级单线船闸船舶过闸问题进行仿真。在此基础上,为了评价相关要素对船舶待闸时间的影响,开展了大量单因素和多因素影响下船舶过闸敏感性试验。采用数据拟合方法研究了单因素作用下船舶待闸时间变化规律和预测模型,采用BP神经网络构建双因素作用下的船舶待闸时间预测模型。检验表明船舶待闸时间预测模型具有较好的预测精度。结合过闸预约制和预测模型提出了船闸优化调度策略,可为管理部门开展船闸科学调度提供有效的参考方法。To improve the dispatching level of inland river ship locks and alleviate the blockage of ship locks,taking the single-stage single-line ship lock,which is the most widely used in the development of river water transport cascade in China,as the research object,the navigation simulation model of ship locks is constructed using Arena simulation platform,and the simulation is carried out for the problem of ship passing through the single-stage single-line ship lock using the Xinglong ship lock on the Han River as an example.On this basis,to evaluate the impact of relevant factors on ship waiting time,a large number of single-factor and multi-factor influences of ship s sensitivity experiments have been carried out.The data fitting method is used to study the change rule and the prediction model of ship waiting time under the action of single factor,and the BP neural network method is used to construct the prediction model of ship waiting time under the action of double factors.The inspection results show that the ship waiting time prediction model has good prediction accuracy.Combined with the lock reservation system and the prediction model,the optimal scheduling of the ship lock is proposed,which can provide an effective reference method for the management department to carry out the scientific scheduling of the ship lock.

关 键 词：内河船闸 待闸时间 预测模型 Arena仿真 数据拟合 神经网络 优化调度 

分 类 号：U641.7[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]