中国小卫星全寿命周期故障分布研究  

Study on full life-cycle failure distribution of China’s small satellites

作　　者：王世清[1] 常静[1] 葛宇[1] 白照广[1] WANG Shiqing;CHANG Jing;GE Yu;BAI Zhaoguang(DFH Satellite Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100094,China)

机构地区：[1]航天东方红卫星有限公司,北京100094

出　　处：《航天器环境工程》2022年第6期645-650,共6页Spacecraft Environment Engineering

摘　　要：基于航天东方红卫星有限公司已发射的100多颗现代小卫星的在轨故障统计数据,研究发现国内小卫星在轨故障的分布规律呈威布尔分布特点。继而针对CAST968平台和CAST2000平台小卫星的实际在轨故障数据给出在轨故障分布的经验公式,结合国内小卫星正样研制阶段的故障分布研究成果,对小卫星全寿命周期的故障分布规律和特点进行分析和总结,在国内首次给出小卫星全寿命周期的故障概率密度曲线和浴盆曲线。Based on the in-orbit failure statistics of more than 100 modern small satellites which have been lunched by DFH Satellite Co.,Ltd.,it was found that the distribution law of in-orbit failures of domestic small satellites was Weibull distribution.An empirical formula was then presented using the in-orbit failure data of CAST968 and CAST2000 platforms.The failure distribution law and features of the full life-cycle of China’s small satellites were analyzed and summarized by integrating the study of failure distributions in the flight model phase of domestic small satellites.The failure probability density function(PDF)and the bathtub curves of full life-cycle of small satellites are given for the first time in China.

关 键 词：小卫星 在轨故障 统计模型 威布尔模型 故障概率密度函数 浴盆曲线 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计] V417.3[理学—数学]