基于改进SIR模型的反转事件舆情传播控制研究  

Research on Network Public Opinion Transmission Mechanism of Inversion Event Based on Integrating Improved SIR Model

作　　者：唐建荣 鲍佳彤 Tang Jianrong;Bao Jiatong(School of Business,Jiangnan University,Wuxi 214122,China)

机构地区：[1]江南大学商学院,江苏无锡214122

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2022年第11期2406-2415,共10页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(7187011262);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(2015JDZD11);苏南资本市场研究中心项目(2017ZSJD020)。

摘　　要：为识别恶性新闻反转事件中谣言的传播规律和更有针对性地制定引导决策,提出了一种模拟病毒信息传播的短期预测模型。改进了传统SIR(susceptible infected removed)模型,解决了以往与SD(systems dynamics)模型结合时受限于马尔可夫链而导致转化率固定单一的问题,且以“哮喘女童”事件为例,进行了数据验证。结果表明,模型不仅能有效模拟单次反转事件中的舆情传播危机,分析往期事件处理满意度、官方信息透明度和政府响应时间等控制因素对事件走向的影响,并且能够复现出传统模型中不易看到的传播特征。In order to identify the spreading rules of rumors in vicious news reversal events and make more targeted guiding decisions, a short-term prediction model is proposed to simulate the spread of virus information. This paper improves the traditional susceptible infected removed(SIR) model and solves the problem that the conversion rate is fixed and single due to the limitation of Markov chain when it is combined with systems dynamics(SD) model. The data is validated with the example of "asthmatic girls".The results show that the model not only effectively simulates the crisis of public opinion communication in a single reversal event, but also analyzes the influence of control factors such as the satisfaction of previous events, the transparency of official information and the government response time on the trend of the event,and reproduces the transmission characteristics that are not easily revealed in the traditional model.

关 键 词：新闻反转 舆情传播 SIR模型 系统动力学 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]