低碳转型政策对宏观经济的影响研究——基于DSGE模型分析  

Research on the Impact of Low-carbon Transition Policy on Macroeconomics——Based on the DSGE model

作　　者：张涛[1] 侯宇恒 张卓群 TAO ZHANG;YUHENG HOU;ZHUOQUN ZHANG(Institute of Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;College of Applied Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Research Institute for Eco-civilization,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学经济学院 [2]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院 [3]中国社会科学院生态文明研究所

出　　处：《产业经济评论》2022年第6期57-70,共14页Review of Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目“宏观大数据建模和预测研究”(71991475);国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“半参数Copula模型及其在经济领域非线性相关问题中的研究”(21FJYB026)的资助。

摘　　要：低碳转型政策是实现碳中和的重要抓手。本文基于新凯恩斯理论构建了一个包含不同收入水平家庭和环境负外部性的DSGE模型,分析了碳税、碳减排优惠利率和低碳补贴政策对宏观经济的影响。政策制定面临经济增长和碳减排之间的权衡,合理的低碳转型政策组合可以减少政策对宏观经济造成的波动。此外,低碳转型政策对不同收入水平家庭的影响并不相同,低收入水平家庭受政策的影响更大。基于此提出建议,稳步推进低碳转型政策,减少低碳转型过程对宏观经济产生的负效应;充分发挥货币政策对清洁能源、节能环保和碳减排技术的支持作用;完善碳税制度与其他低碳转型政策的协调配合,推动经济增长和碳减排目标的协同实现;加大对低收入水平家庭的低碳补贴;鼓励公共投资投入到碳减排技术的创新研发中。Low-carbon transformation policy is an important starting point to achieve carbon neutrality.Based on the New Keynesian theory,this paper constructs a DSGE model that includes negative externalities of families with different income levels and the environment,and analyzes the impacts of carbon tax,preferential interest rates for carbon emission reduction and low-carbon subsidy policies on macro-economy.Policy making is faced with the trade-off between economic growth and carbon emission reduction,and a reasonable combination of low-carbon transition policies can reduce the fluctuation caused by policies on macro-economy.In addition,the low-carbon transition policy has different impacts on families with different income levels,and low-income families are more affected by the policy.Based on this suggestion,we should steadily promote the low-carbon transition policy and reduce the negative effects of the low-carbon transition process on the macro-economy;Give full play to the supporting role of monetary policy in clean energy,energy conservation and environmental protection and carbon emission reduction technologies;Improve the coordination between the carbon tax system and other low-carbon transformation policies,and promote the coordinated realization of economic growth and carbon emission reduction targets;Increase low-carbon subsidies for low-income families;Encourage public investment in innovative research and development of carbon emission reduction technologies.

关 键 词：低碳转型 碳税 碳减排优惠利率 低碳补贴 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]