国家关键技术选择与技术预测40年回顾与思考  

Retrospective Review of 40 Years of National Critical Technologies Selection and Technology Foresight

作　　者：袁立科[1] Yuan Like(Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术发展战略研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2022年第12期25-34,共10页Forum on Science and Technology in China

摘　　要：国家技术预测是国家科技宏观决策的重要手段,它为制定国家科技政策和发展战略、选择优先发展领域以及确定研发资金投入方向等方面提供支撑,为科技规划和研发计划的制定奠定基础。国家关键技术选择和技术预测已经走过了40年,积累了丰富的实践经验,为技术预测研究提供了良好素材。回顾六次国家技术预测的发展历程,可以发现每个阶段技术预测实践都有鲜明的特点,流程体系不断完善、方法组合不断优化,逐渐成为科技管理部门的一项基础性工作,但也面临不少问题和挑战。需要进一步完善常态化技术预测机制,强化社会沟通和交流功能,重视愿景和技术需求导向,以及加强新技术新方法的运用,提升技术预测制度化、规范化水平。National technology foresight has been playing an important role of national science and technology decision-making,which provides support for formulating national science and technology policies and development strategies,selecting priority development areas,and determining the direction of R&D investment,and lays a foundation for the formulation of science and technology planning.National critical technology selection and technology foresight has gone through 40 years,accumulated rich practical experience,and provided good materials for technology foresight research.Retrospective reviewing six national technology foresight in China,can be found that each stage of technology foresight practice has distinctive characteristics.The process system has been constantly improved and the methodology has been continuously optimized,which has gradually become a basic work of science and technology management departments.However,it also faces many problems and challenges.It is necessary to further improve the normalized technology foresight mechanism,strengthen social communication and exchange functions,emphasize vision and demand orientation,and improve methodology system to improve the institutionalization and standardization of technology foresight.

关 键 词：国家技术预测 关键技术选择 科技规划 方法体系 

分 类 号：G301[文化科学]