西南地区干旱风险传递特征及驱动因素分析  

Analysis on characteristics and driving factors of drought risk transmission in Southwest China

作　　者：许筱乐 彭涛[1,2] 林青霞[1,2] 董晓华 王佑鑫[1] 刘冀 常文娟 王高旭[3] XU Xiaole;PENG Tao;LIN Qingxia;DONG Xiaohua;WANG Youxin;LIU Ji;CHANG Wenjuan;WANG Gaoxu(College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Engineering Research Center of Eco-environment in Three Gorges Reservoir Region,Yichang 443002,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡库区生态环境教育部工程研究中心,湖北宜昌443002 [3]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210029

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2022年第12期69-79,共11页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52009065);宜昌市自然科学研究项目(A21-3-004);湖北省水利重点科研项目(HBSLKY202109)。

摘　　要：研究干旱风险传递规律及驱动因素,对干旱预警和水资源管理具有重要意义。选用标准化降水指数分析不同时间尺度下的西南地区干旱特征,采用脆弱性、暴露度和恢复力3种风险因子评估区域综合干旱风险,基于马尔科夫链和随机森林算法探究干旱风险传递特征及驱动因素。结果表明:不同时间尺度下,干旱历时与干旱烈度的空间格局基本一致;西南地区干旱风险从高到低依次为四川、重庆、云南、广西和贵州;一个区域若与风险低的区域为邻,干旱风险等级大概率下降,反之亦然;东亚夏季风指数和北大西洋多年代际涛动是影响重庆、四川、云南和广西干旱的主导因素,北大西洋多年代际涛动和太平洋年代际振荡是影响贵州干旱的主要因子。The study of drought risk transmission and its driving factors is of great significance for drought early warning and water resources management.We use the standardized precipitation index to analyze the drought characteristics of different time scales in Southwest China.Three risk factors,vulnerability,exposure and resilience,are used to assess regional comprehensive drought risk;And the characteristics and driving factors of drought risk transmission are examined using a Markov chain and random forest algorithm.The results show the spatial patterns of drought duration and severity are roughly the same in different time scales.The order of high to low drought risk in Southwest China is Sichuan,Chongqing,Yunnan,Guangxi,and Guizhou provinces.If an area is adjacent to a low-risk one,its drought risk level will decrease at a relatively high probability,and vice versa.East Asian Summer Monsoon Index and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are the key factors causing the drought in Chongqing,Sichuan,Yunnan,and Guangxi,while Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation are the main causes of drought in Guizhou.

关 键 词：标准化降水指数 干旱风险 马尔科夫链 风险传递 随机森林算法 西南地区 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]