华南地区地震预测指标体系建设现状与展望  

Current Situation and Prospect of Earthquake Prediction Index System in South China

作　　者：周斌 ZHOU Bin(Earthquake Agency of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Nanning 530022,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区地震局,南宁530022

出　　处：《华南地震》2022年第4期1-6,共6页South China Journal of Seismology

基　　金：2021年度震情跟踪定向工作任务(2021020504);地震预测开放基金(2021EF0F02);广西科技攻关计划(1298005-2、1377002)项目联合资助。

摘　　要：地震预测指标体系是经验预报阶段最有效的预测方法之一。经过几十年的地震预测探索实践和震例总结研究,华南地区初步建立了分学科、分构造区的地震预测指标体系,并在震情跟踪工作实践中取得初步的应用效果。通过总结华南地区预测指标体系取得的进展,剖析了存在的不足,建议充分发挥地震科技的支撑引领作用,以地球动力学为主线,以中强地震活动主体地区研究为重点,遵循“场源结合,以场求源”指导思路,进一步优化和完善华南地区地震预测指标体系,支撑地震预测实践。Earthquake prediction index system is one of the most effective prediction methods in the empirical prediction stage.After decades of exploration and practice of earthquake prediction and earthquake cases study,earthquake prediction index system with different discipline and tectonic region has been preliminarily established in South China,and have achieved preliminary application effect in the practice of earthquake situation tracking.This paper summarizes the progress of the earthquake prediction index system in South China,and analyzes the existing shortcomings.It is suggested to give full play to the supporting and leading role of seismic science and technology,take the geodynamic as main line,focus on the main areas of moderate-strong seismicity,follow the guiding ideology of combining field with source and seeking source from field,further optimize and strengthen the construction of the earthquake prediction index system in South China and support the earthquake prediction practice.

关 键 词：华南地区 地震预测 指标体系 现状 展望 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]