四川盆地显著地震的“窗口”效应  

The"Window Effect"of Significant Earthquakes in Sichuan Basin

作　　者：张致伟[1] ZHANG Zhiwei(Sichuan Earthquake Agency,Chengdu 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省地震局,成都610041

出　　处：《华南地震》2022年第4期41-47,共7页South China Journal of Seismology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划专题(2021YFC3000705-07);震情跟踪定向工作任务(2021020503)联合资助。

摘　　要：为研究四川盆地显著地震与四川及邻区强震的关系,通过系统分析了1980年以来四川盆地4.5≤M≤5.0地震与四川及邻区M≥6.0地震的对应情况,并对其预报效能进行统计检验,试图为四川及邻区强震的预测提供依据。结果表明,四川盆地4.5≤M≤5.0地震对四川及邻区M≥6.0地震具有一定的预测意义,优势发震区域为巴颜喀拉块体中东部和川滇交界地区,发震优势时间为160天内。由此可见,四川盆地4.5≤M≤5.0地震可作为四川及邻区M≥6.0地震的中短期预测指标。In order to study the relationship between the significant earthquakes and the strong earthquakes in Sichuan and its adjacent area,this paper systematically analyzed the correspondence between the earthquakes with 4.5≤M≤5.0 in Sichuan Basin and the earthquakes with M≥6.0 in Sichuan and its adjacent areas since 1980,and conducted statistical tests on their prediction efficiency,trying to provide a basis for the prediction of the strong earthquakes in Sichuan and its adjacent areas.The results show that the earthquakes with 4.5≤M≤5.0 in Sichuan Basin have good prediction significance for the earthquakes with M≥6.0 in Sichuan and its adjacent areas.The dominant seismogenic regions are the middle segment of Bayan Har block and the Sichuan-Yunnan border area,the dominant time is 160 days.It can be concluded that the earthquakes with 4.5≤M≤5.0 in Sichuan Basin can be used as a short and medium term prediction index for earthquakes with M≥6.0 in Sichuan and its adjacent areas.

关 键 词：四川盆地 显著地震 四川及邻区 强震 “窗口”地震 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]