华南流体预测指标提取及应用实例  

Extraction and Application of Fluid Prediction Index in South China

作　　者：廖丽霞[1] 秦双龙[1] 莫佩婵 LIAO Lixia;QIN Shuanglong;MO Peichan(Fujian Earthquake Agency,Fuzhou 350001,China;Earthquake Agency of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Nanning 530022,China)

机构地区：[1]福建省地震局,福州350001 [2]广西壮族自治区地震局,南宁530022

出　　处：《华南地震》2022年第4期67-77,共11页South China Journal of Seismology

基　　金：中国地震局地震科技星火计划攻关项目(XH21013);中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(面上2021020301);国家重点研发计划专题(2019YFC1509404-4)联合资助。

摘　　要：为深化会商制度改革,提升地震预测能力,在流体台网监测和预报效能评估的基础上,结合中国震例中华南震例统计分析结果,进行华南流体预测指标提取。预测的时间指标主要从地球化学测项进行提取,其中短期指标以水氡异常为主,中期指标主要以水质异常为主。提取原则为:根据地震的最佳对应效果确定判据,当达某阈值多次对应地震且符合孕震机理,这个阈值则作为异常判定标准;或当出现某特征后多次对应地震,这个特征则作为异常判定标准。空间指标主要从水位的点-线-面三个维度进行提取。提取原则为:点的指标从水位年动态畸变进行提取;线的指标从同一构造带多井水位多年趋势动态提取;面的指标从水位同震阶升井围成的空间区域进行提取。同时对预测指标应用过程中存在的问题进行了讨论,并进一步提出指标改进方案和台网优化建议。In order to deepen the reform of consultation system and improve the ability of earthquake prediction,the index of fluid prediction of South China is extracted on the basis of monitoring and prediction efficiency evaluation of fluid network and the results of statistical analysis of earthquake cases in South China.The time index of prediction is mainly extracted from the geochemical measurements.The short-term index is mainly water radon,and the medium-term index is mainly water quality anomalies.The extraction principle is:According to the criterion of the best corresponding effect of the earthquake,when a certain threshold is reached,corresponds to the earthquake for many times and conforms to the seismogenic mechanism,this threshold is used as the anomaly judgment criterion;or when a certain feature occurs many times corresponding to earthquakes,this feature is used as an a anomaly judgment criterion.The spatial index is mainly extracted from the three dimensions of the water level:point-line-surface.The extraction principle is:The index of the point is extracted from the annual dynamic distortion of the water level;the index of the line is extracted from the multi-year dynamic trend of the water level of multiple wells in the same structural belt;the index of the surface is extracted from the spatial region enclosed by the water level co-seismic steps.At the same time,the problems existing in the application of the prediction index are discussed,and the improvement scheme of the index and the optimization suggestions of the network are put forward.

关 键 词：华南地区 预测指标 流体台网 同震阶升 水位趋势动态 

分 类 号：P315.6[天文地球—地震学]