华南地区地震危险性判定综合指标的分析与应用  

Analysis and Application of Comprehensive Indicators for Seismic Hazard Determination in South China

作　　者：袁丽文[1] YUAN Liwen(Fujian Earthquake Agency,Fuzhou 350000,China)

机构地区：[1]福建省地震局,福州350000

出　　处：《华南地震》2022年第4期78-85,共8页South China Journal of Seismology

摘　　要：利用华南地区地震预测指标,分析其时、空、强预测特征显示:地震活动性指标均为中、长期预测指标,一般指示较大空间范围5级以上中强地震的发震危险性;地球物理观测指标以中、短期预测指标为主,一般指示异常台项周边、异常测值空间分布区或异常阈值线附近的4~5级左右地震的发震危险性。利用预测指标的上述特征,梳理出时间上不断逼近发震时间、空间上不断逼近发震危险区的预测思路流程。Using the seismic prediction indicators in South China,the analysis of its time,space and strong prediction characteristics shows that the seismicity indicators are all medium and long-term prediction indicators,generally indicating the seismic risk of moderate and strong earthquakes with M≥5 in a large spatial range;geophysical observation indicators are mainly medium and short-term prediction indicators,which generally indicate the seismic risk of earthquakes with magnitude of 4-5 near the abnormal station,the spatial distribution area of abnormal measurement values,or near the abnormal threshold line.Using the above mentioned characteristics of the prediction indicators,the prediction process of continuously approaching the earthquake occurrence time in time and the earthquake risk area in space is sorted out.

关 键 词：华南 预测指标 预测思路流程 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]